2023年四季报点评：业绩符合预期，上葡京及新葡京协同作用逐步显现

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company's performance in Q4 2023 met expectations, with adjusted property EBITDA profit margins expected to recover to 2019 levels. The net revenue for Q4 2023 was HKD 6.39 billion, aligning closely with the expected HKD 6.47 billion, and recovering to 75.6% of the same period in 2019. Gaming and non-gaming net revenues were HKD 5.95 billion and HKD 0.44 billion, respectively, recovering to 71.0% and 245.2% of 2019 levels [2][3] - The company adjusted its organizational structure to enhance the synergy between the new and old properties, which has already shown positive results, including a 25% increase in mid-market betting amounts and a 12% increase in customer visits to the gaming area in early 2024 [3][4] - The report forecasts net revenues of HKD 21.71 billion, HKD 26.02 billion, and HKD 28.80 billion for 2023, 2024, and 2025, respectively, with adjusted property EBITDA of HKD 1.95 billion, HKD 3.48 billion, and HKD 4.91 billion for the same years. The target price is set at HKD 3.60 [3][4] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Total revenue for Q4 2023 was HKD 6.30 billion, recovering to 62.5% of Q4 2019 levels. VIP and mass market gaming revenues were HKD 5.10 billion and HKD 5.79 billion, recovering to 15.3% and 86.0% of 2019 levels, respectively [3] - The company's overall market share in Q4 2023 was 12.0%, down from 14.4% in 2019, primarily due to the closure of five satellite casinos and regulatory impacts on VIP business [3] Organizational Changes - The company has restructured to better manage daily operations and service quality across its properties, aiming to maximize customer potential and improve occupancy rates at the new property [3][4] Earnings Forecast - The report maintains revenue and EBITDA forecasts for 2023-2025, with current stock prices corresponding to EV/EBITDA multiples of 21.2, 11.9, and 8.4 for the respective years [3][4]