GHWL(SH:600603) Xinda Securities·2024-03-11 16:00Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook on its stock performance [4][17]. Core Views - The company is expected to benefit from the high growth potential of its energy logistics business, with projected net profits of 665 million yuan, 1.309 billion yuan, and 2.005 billion yuan for 2023-2025, corresponding to P/E ratios of 14x, 7x, and 5x respectively [4][3]. - The report highlights the strategic importance of the newly operational railway, which is anticipated to gradually increase cargo volumes, benefiting the company's logistics operations [4][18]. Summary by Sections Financial Projections - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 6.65 billion yuan in 2023, 13.09 billion yuan in 2024, and 20.05 billion yuan in 2025, with a target market value of 19.3 billion yuan for 2024 [4][20]. - The report anticipates a significant increase in related transactions, estimating a 201% year-on-year growth in service fees from 15.95 billion yuan in 2023 to 48 billion yuan in 2024 [7][4]. Market Dynamics - The report notes that the adjustment in transportation structure, particularly the shift from road to rail ("public to rail"), is expected to enhance the logistics efficiency and reduce costs, which is crucial for the coal transportation sector [17][18]. - The company is positioned as a leader in the transportation of coal from Xinjiang, with the total coal transportation volume expected to exceed 100 million tons in 2023, including a 9.5% year-on-year increase in railway coal transportation [17][18]. Operational Insights - The operational commencement of the new railway line is expected to provide a steady increase in cargo volumes, with the company’s logistics services projected to grow in line with the rising demand for coal in key consumption areas [4][18]. - The report emphasizes the importance of the company's logistics strategy, which is aligned with national policies aimed at optimizing transportation structures and enhancing the efficiency of coal supply chains [17][18].