“流媒体+体育”风起时

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to Walt Disney Company (DIS US) with a target price of $142, representing a 26.4% potential upside from the current price of $112.3 [1][2] Core Views - Disney is expected to benefit from the growth of streaming and sports sectors, driven by its extensive content ecosystem, iconic IPs, and diversified product portfolio [1] - The company's streaming losses narrowed better than expected in 1QFY24, and management expects streaming to achieve profitability by 4QFY24 [1] - Disney is projected to achieve a 5% revenue CAGR and 16% profit CAGR from FY24 to FY26, supported by advertising-tier membership penetration, shared subscription plans, Hulu synergies, and resilient theme park growth [1] - The sports business, particularly ESPN+, is seen as a long-term growth engine, with potential from strategic partnerships and standalone app launches [1] Business Segments Streaming (DTC) - Disney+ reached 150 million paid subscribers in 1QFY24, with a projected 4% CAGR in subscriber growth from FY24 to FY26 [1] - The streaming business is expected to achieve breakeven in 4QFY24 and deliver double-digit operating margins in the long term [1] - Key growth drivers include rich content library, advertising-tier memberships, shared subscriptions, and Hulu synergies [1] Theme Parks - Theme parks remain a cash cow for Disney, contributing approximately 2/3 of the group's operating profit in FY24 [1] - International parks are expected to maintain steady growth, while US parks are projected to accelerate revenue growth in 2H24 [1] - The segment is forecasted to deliver a 10% operating profit CAGR from FY24 to FY26 [1] Sports (ESPN+) - ESPN+ is positioned to capture growth in the digital sports market, leveraging rising streaming penetration and strong demand from sports enthusiasts [1] - Strategic partnerships and standalone app initiatives are expected to drive long-term growth in this segment [1] Financial Projections - FY24 revenue is projected at $91.8 billion, with a 3.3% YoY growth, while adjusted net profit is expected to reach $8.5 billion, a 23.9% YoY increase [5] - FY24 EPS is forecasted at $4.62, representing a 23.4% YoY growth [5] - Free cash flow is expected to reach $8 billion in FY24 [1] - The company's long-term operating margin for theme parks is projected to exceed 25% [1] Valuation - The SOTP-based target price of $142 implies a FY24 P/E of 30.7x, which is 14% lower than Netflix's valuation but slightly above the industry average [1][7] - Key valuation catalysts include streaming profitability, content-driven subscriber growth, resilient theme park performance, and sports business potential [1][6] Peer Comparison - Disney's FY24E P/E of 23.8x is lower than Netflix's 35.5x but higher than Comcast's 10.2x [11] - The company's FY24-26 EPS CAGR of 16% is higher than the industry average of 17% [11]