GS(601500) 国泰君安·2024-03-13 16:00Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a rating of "Buy" for the company [6][35]. Core Views - The tire industry remains highly prosperous, with significant growth potential for the company due to its extensive domestic and international base layout. The expected EPS for 2023-2025 is projected to be 0.15, 0.34, and 0.61 CNY respectively. The target price for 2024 is set at 6.87 CNY, corresponding to a PE of 20.2 and a PB of 1.8 [35][67]. Financial Summary - Revenue (CNY million): - 2021A: 4,256 - 2022A: 4,120 - 2023E: 5,018 - 2024E: 7,395 - 2025E: 10,598 - Growth rates: 2022A: -3%, 2023E: +22%, 2024E: +47%, 2025E: +43% [4][42] - Operating Profit (EBIT): - 2021A: 49 - 2022A: 57 - 2023E: 413 - 2024E: 791 - 2025E: 1,323 - Growth rates: 2022A: +15%, 2023E: +624%, 2024E: +92%, 2025E: +67% [4][42] - Net Profit (attributable to parent): - 2021A: 12 - 2022A: 17 - 2023E: 231 - 2024E: 533 - 2025E: 963 - Growth rates: 2022A: +46%, 2023E: +1264%, 2024E: +130%, 2025E: +81% [4][42] Company Overview - The company is a well-known domestic tire manufacturer with a multi-base layout both domestically and internationally. It has established production bases in Wuxi, Thailand, and Cambodia, with significant ongoing projects that will enhance its production capacity from 2024 to 2026 [12][30][70]. Industry Insights - The tire market is a trillion CNY industry, with domestic leaders increasing capital expenditures to capture market share from declining overseas giants. The company is implementing a "5X" strategy to enhance its competitive position [30][68]. - The global tire market is expected to maintain a steady growth trajectory, driven by increasing vehicle ownership and demand for replacement tires, particularly in the Chinese market, which accounts for about 20% of global tire demand [122][159]. Growth Drivers - The company is focusing on smart manufacturing and brand development, which are expected to improve production efficiency and product quality. The introduction of intelligent production lines and continuous production capabilities is anticipated to significantly enhance operational efficiency and reduce costs [59][207]. Financial Projections - The company forecasts revenue growth to reach CNY 50.18 billion in 2023, CNY 73.95 billion in 2024, and CNY 105.98 billion in 2025, with corresponding net profits of CNY 2.31 billion, CNY 5.33 billion, and CNY 9.63 billion respectively [42][42]. Conclusion - The report indicates a positive outlook for the company, supported by its strategic initiatives and favorable market conditions, positioning it well for future growth in the tire industry [35][67].