天管并表贡献增量，能源、出口钢材表现亮眼

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to the company, with a current price of 15.55 CNY and a fair value of 21.09 CNY [1]. Core Views - The company has shown a significant increase in energy and export steel performance, contributing positively to its financials. However, the overall profitability has declined due to lower-than-expected demand and rising costs [1][2]. - The company reported a 17% decrease in net profit attributable to the parent company in Q4 2023, with a revenue of 27.6 billion CNY, down 14% year-on-year but up 1% quarter-on-quarter [1]. - The steel sales volume reached 18.89 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 24%, but profitability has been impacted by rising costs and lower-than-expected demand [1][2]. Financial Summary - Revenue for 2023 is projected at 114.02 billion CNY, with a growth rate of 15.9%. The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be 5.721 billion CNY, reflecting a decline of 19.5% [2][3]. - The company’s EBITDA for 2023 is estimated at 11.877 billion CNY, with a projected increase to 13.026 billion CNY in 2024 [2][3]. - The forecasted EPS for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 1.24 CNY, 1.29 CNY, and 1.36 CNY respectively, with a corresponding P/E ratio of 12.53, 12.08, and 11.44 [2][3]. Operational Insights - The company aims to enhance its product structure towards high-end products and plans to expand its overseas presence, particularly in the special steel segment [1][2]. - The sales volume of energy steel, export steel, and "small giant" products has increased significantly, with year-on-year growth rates of 56%, 50%, and 35% respectively [1][2]. - The company is focusing on achieving a sales target of 1.92 million tons in 2024, with an export target of 280,000 tons, reflecting an 18% increase [1].