SHCI(SH:601225) Guohai Securities·2024-03-14 16:00Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industry Co., Ltd. (601225) [1] Core Views - The company's performance in 2023 was impacted by investment losses, but the non-recurring net profit met expectations. The overall coal production increased, while the fourth quarter saw a decline due to safety regulations and an accident at the Zhangjiaba mine [4][5] - The average annual long-term contract price for thermal coal and the pithead price in Shaanxi decreased by 1% and 18% respectively compared to 2022, affecting the company's performance [5][6] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2023, the company achieved operating revenue of 170.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.38%. However, the total profit decreased by 33.80% to 42.3 billion yuan, and the net profit attributable to shareholders fell by 39.59% to 21.26 billion yuan. The non-recurring net profit was 24.8 billion yuan, down 16.33% year-on-year [4][6] - For Q4 2023, the company reported operating revenue of 43.4 billion yuan, a quarter-on-quarter increase of 18.0% and a year-on-year increase of 19.6%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 5.08 billion yuan, up 10.4% quarter-on-quarter but down 15.5% year-on-year [4] Production and Sales - In 2023, the company produced 164 million tons of raw coal, a year-on-year increase of 4.10%, and sold 253 million tons of coal, a year-on-year increase of 12.60%. The self-produced coal sales were 162 million tons, up 4.17% year-on-year [5][6] - In Q4 2023, the coal production was 39.46 million tons, down 1.8% quarter-on-quarter and 4.4% year-on-year. The self-produced coal sales were 38.92 million tons, down 2.0% quarter-on-quarter and 7.8% year-on-year [5] Price Trends - The average annual long-term contract price for thermal coal in 2023 was 714 yuan/ton, and the pithead price in Shaanxi was 863 yuan/ton, both lower than in 2022. In Q1 2024, these prices further decreased by 2.7% and 6.9% respectively compared to Q4 2023 [5][6] Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The report adjusts the earnings forecast, predicting net profits for 2023, 2024, and 2025 to be 21.26 billion yuan, 24.21 billion yuan, and 25.25 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding EPS of 2.19 yuan, 2.50 yuan, and 2.60 yuan. The current PE ratios are projected at 11.5, 10.11, and 9.69 times [6][7]