Healthcare (603313) 国泰君安·2024-03-14 16:00Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to the company with a target price of 12.70 CNY, reflecting an increase from the previous target of 12.96 CNY [6][34]. Core Insights - The company is positioned as a leader in the memory foam mattress industry, benefiting from a global layout and expected improvements in manufacturing orders due to anti-dumping measures [18][34]. - Revenue growth is anticipated to recover, with significant increases projected for EPS from 0.23 CNY in 2023 to 1.01 CNY in 2025, representing year-on-year growth of 222% and 252% respectively [17][34]. - The company is expected to see a rebound in sales and profitability as external pressures ease, with a focus on expanding its market share in North America and Europe [3][34]. Summary by Sections 1. Earnings Forecast - The company anticipates revenue growth rates for external sales in the U.S., Europe, and other regions to be -9%/+14%/+17%, +5%/+11%/+12%, and +12%/+20%/+20% respectively from 2023 to 2025 [3][4]. - Internal sales are projected to grow significantly, with direct sales, franchises, and online channels expected to see growth rates of +66%/+77%/+33%, +20%/+69%/+66%, and +61%/+20%/+20% respectively [4]. 2. Financial Analysis - The company’s revenue is expected to increase from 7,997 million CNY in 2023 to 11,257 million CNY in 2025, with a corresponding improvement in gross profit margins [11][34]. - The report highlights a significant improvement in operating profit (EBIT) from 403 million CNY in 2023 to 971 million CNY in 2025, indicating a strong recovery in profitability [34]. 3. Market Position and Strategy - The company is leveraging its global manufacturing capabilities and is expected to benefit from the third round of anti-dumping measures, which will enhance its competitive position in the U.S. market [6][34]. - The report emphasizes the company's strategic focus on expanding its retail channels and enhancing product offerings through technological upgrades [18][34]. 4. Valuation Metrics - The report suggests a valuation based on a PE ratio of 16x for 2024, leading to a reasonable valuation of 13.1 CNY per share, and a PB ratio yielding a valuation of 12.6 CNY per share [6][34]. - The average of these two valuation methods results in a target price of 12.7 CNY, supporting the "Buy" rating [6][34].