2023年年报点评：无人机出海龙头；24年或将加大国内市场拓展

Investment Rating - Maintain "Recommend" rating [2][3] Core Views - The company is a leading enterprise in China's large UAV systems, benefiting from equipment exports and domestic demand growth in the special equipment sector, with potential for rapid development in the coming years [2] - Adjusted net profit forecasts for 2024-2026 are 417 million yuan, 570 million yuan, and 762 million yuan, respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 63x, 46x, and 34x [2] Financial Performance - 2023 revenue: 2.664 billion yuan, YoY -3.9% [2] - 2023 net profit: 303 million yuan, YoY -18.3% [2] - 4Q23 revenue: 1.35 billion yuan, YoY +121.7% [2] - 4Q23 net profit: 60 million yuan, YoY +420.5% [2] - 2023 gross margin: 19.0%, down 5.31ppt YoY [2] - 2023 net margin: 11.4%, down 1.99ppt YoY [2] Business Segments - UAV systems and related products: 2.56 billion yuan revenue, 96% of total, YoY -6.2%, gross margin 18.0% [2] - UAV technical services: 110 million yuan revenue, 4% of total, YoY +136.4%, gross margin 42.0% [2] Cost Structure - Direct material costs for UAV systems: 1.79 billion yuan, 97.2% of main business costs [2] - Direct labor costs: +62.3% YoY [2] - Manufacturing expenses: +68.7% YoY [2] - Other direct costs: +34.1% YoY [2] Expense Management - 2023 period expense ratio: 7.2%, down 2.12ppt YoY [2] - R&D expenses: 170 million yuan, -8.7% YoY [2] Future Outlook - 2024 expected related party purchases: 1.4 billion yuan, +62.3% YoY [2] - 2024 expected related party sales: 1 billion yuan, -45.9% YoY [2] - 2024 expected related party deposits: 2 billion yuan, up from 700 million yuan [2] Financial Projections - 2024-2026 revenue forecast: 3.602 billion yuan, 4.808 billion yuan, 6.338 billion yuan [6] - 2024-2026 net profit forecast: 417 million yuan, 570 million yuan, 762 million yuan [6] - 2024-2026 EPS forecast: 0.62 yuan, 0.84 yuan, 1.13 yuan [6] Valuation Metrics - 2024-2026 P/E: 63x, 46x, 34x [6] - 2024-2026 P/B: 4.3x, 4.0x, 3.7x [6] - 2024-2026 EV/EBITDA: 52.54x, 36.44x, 27.24x [7]