FII(601138) 国元证券·2024-03-16 16:00Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected stock price increase of over 20% compared to the Shanghai Composite Index within the next six months [5][17]. Core Views - The company's profitability has significantly improved, and it is well-positioned to benefit from the explosive demand for AI hardware in the digital economy [2][4]. - Despite a short-term revenue decline due to business restructuring, the company has seen substantial growth in its AI server market share and overall profitability across its business segments [3][12]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2023, the company reported total revenue of 476.34 billion yuan, a decrease of 6.94% year-on-year, while net profit attributable to shareholders was 21.04 billion yuan, an increase of 4.82% year-on-year [2][10]. - The fourth quarter saw revenue of 147.52 billion yuan, down 2.15% year-on-year, and net profit of 7.56 billion yuan, down 8.72% year-on-year [2]. Revenue Breakdown - Cloud computing revenue reached 194.31 billion yuan, with AI server products accounting for nearly 50% of this segment, reflecting a significant market share increase [3][11]. - The communication and mobile network equipment segment generated 278.98 billion yuan, with notable growth in high-speed switches and routers [3][11]. - Industrial internet revenue was 1.65 billion yuan, with the company contributing to the establishment of nine world-class lighthouse factories [3][12]. Profitability - The gross margins for cloud computing, communication and mobile network equipment, and industrial internet were 5.08%, 9.80%, and 49.81%, respectively, showing year-on-year increases [3][12]. - The cloud computing segment achieved its highest gross margin since its IPO in 2018, driven by the rising share of AI-related products [12][14]. Future Outlook - The company is expected to benefit from the ongoing demand for computing hardware, with projected revenues of 543.77 billion yuan, 604.90 billion yuan, and 677.56 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively [5][6]. - Net profit forecasts for the same period are 24.58 billion yuan, 28.20 billion yuan, and 32.44 billion yuan, with corresponding PE ratios of 18x, 16x, and 14x [5][6]. Strategic Positioning - As a leader in the digital economy, the company is poised to capitalize on the AI hardware demand surge, with a strong focus on R&D and a robust patent portfolio [4][14]. - The company has established a global digital management system that enhances production flexibility and supply chain resource management, positioning it favorably for future growth [14].