CITIC Steel(SZ:000708) Guoxin Securities·2024-03-17 16:00Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, citing its clear growth path and strong market position in the special steel industry [1][12][13]. Core Insights - The company has enhanced its production capacity to 20 million tons in 2023, following the acquisition of Tianjin Steel Pipe, and its special steel segment capacity exceeds 30 million tons [1][5]. - The company achieved a historical high in steel sales of 18.89 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 24.4%, and reported revenue of 114.02 billion yuan, up 15.9% year-on-year [1][5]. - Despite a decline in net profit by 19.5% to 5.72 billion yuan, the company showed resilience with a quarterly net profit of 1.35 billion yuan in Q4, reflecting a 0.9% increase quarter-on-quarter [1][5]. - The company actively adjusted its product mix in response to market demand, with significant growth in energy steel (up 56%) and automotive steel (up 20%) [1][8]. - Export sales reached 2.38 million tons, a 50.1% increase year-on-year, with export product gross margins at 22.0%, significantly higher than the domestic margin of 11.7% [1][8]. Financial Performance - The company’s revenue and net profit forecasts for 2024-2026 are 117.8 billion yuan, 120.7 billion yuan, and 122.7 billion yuan, with corresponding net profits of 6.36 billion yuan, 7.09 billion yuan, and 7.99 billion yuan, indicating growth rates of 3.3%, 2.4%, and 1.7% for revenue, and 11.1%, 11.6%, and 12.7% for net profit [1][12][14]. - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 5.65 yuan per 10 shares, totaling 2.85 billion yuan, which represents 49.8% of the net profit attributable to shareholders [1][12]. Market Position and Strategy - The company has a strong cost transfer capability due to its deep focus on special steel and long-term strategic partnerships with leading downstream customers [1][8]. - The company has successfully optimized its product structure and maintained stable performance despite market fluctuations, leveraging its competitive advantages in technology and customer loyalty [1][8]. - The report highlights the company's commitment to maintaining a stable dividend policy, aiming for a balance between performance growth and shareholder returns [1][12].