业绩高增长，分红超预期

Investment Rating - The report maintains a Buy rating for CATL (300750 SZ) [3][7] Core Views - CATL achieved RMB 400 9 billion in revenue for 2023, a 22% YoY increase, with net profit attributable to shareholders reaching RMB 44 12 billion, up 44% YoY [1] - The company's gross margin improved to 22 9%, a 2 7 percentage point increase YoY, driven by product mix optimization and overseas expansion [1][2] - CATL's free cash flow reached RMB 92 8 billion, a 152% YoY increase, with RMB 26 43 billion in cash reserves, reflecting strong financial health [2] - The company declared a RMB 22 1 billion dividend, representing 50% of its net profit, showcasing its commitment to shareholder returns [2] Financial Performance - Q4 2023 revenue stood at RMB 106 2 billion, a 10 2% YoY decline, but a 0 8% QoQ increase, with net profit of RMB 129 8 billion, up 24 4% QoQ [1] - 2023 battery shipments reached 390GWh, a 35% YoY increase, driven by new technologies and overseas market expansion [2] - The company's ROE improved to 22 32% in 2023, up from 18 68% in 2022, reflecting enhanced profitability [5] Industry Position - CATL has maintained its position as the global leader in power and energy storage batteries for 10 consecutive years [3] - The company's export revenue surged 70% YoY in 2023, driven by high-end product offerings and premium pricing in overseas markets [2] - CATL's cost advantage over competitors has widened, with a 40%-55% increase in profitability per Wh despite price declines [2] Future Outlook - The report forecasts 2024-2026 net profit to reach RMB 47 4 billion, RMB 53 0 billion, and RMB 62 5 billion, respectively, driven by continued market leadership and technological innovation [3] - CATL is expected to benefit from the global transition to electric vehicles and the carbon neutrality trend, with further expansion in V2G and battery swapping technologies [2] Valuation - The company's P/E ratio stands at 16 28x for 2023, with a projected P/E of 16 80x, 15 04x, and 12 73x for 2024-2026, indicating attractive valuation levels [5] - CATL's P/B ratio is 3 63x for 2023, expected to decline to 3 51x, 3 08x, and 2 68x in the next three years, reflecting strong asset growth [5]