Investment Rating - The report maintains a "BUY" rating for Mobvista Inc. with a target price of HK$6.00, indicating an upside potential of 85.8% from the current price of HK$3.23 [5][15]. Core Insights - Mobvista's FY23 results were largely in line with expectations, showing a revenue increase of 18% year-over-year (YoY) and an adjusted net profit of US$19.1 million, which is 9% above consensus estimates [2][3]. - The company is expected to enhance profitability significantly in FY24, with a forecasted bottom line of US$37 million and a net margin of 2.9%, alongside solid revenue growth of 20% YoY [2][3]. - The report highlights the resilience of the Mintegral revenue, which grew by 19.5% YoY in Q4 2023, and anticipates continued momentum in midcore and hardcore games [2][3]. Revenue and Profitability - Mobvista's revenue for FY23 reached US$1,054 million, with a gross profit margin (GPM) improvement to 20.6%, up 0.8 percentage points YoY, driven by higher advertising efficiency and cost discipline [3][17]. - The company reported a significant increase in adjusted net profit, which rose by 97% YoY, reflecting strong operational performance [3][17]. - By segment, ad-tech and mar-tech revenues grew by 17.8% and 23.9% YoY, respectively, indicating robust growth across its business lines [3][17]. Future Outlook - For FY24, Mobvista is projected to achieve revenue of US$1,265 million, with continued growth expected in the lifestyle segment, which saw a remarkable 143% YoY increase in revenue [3][12]. - The intelligent bidding system upgrade is anticipated to facilitate category expansion, particularly in non-gaming sectors such as e-commerce [2][3]. - The adjusted net margin is expected to improve to 2.9% in FY24 and 3.0% in FY25, reflecting a positive long-term margin outlook [3][12]. Valuation Metrics - The report employs a sum-of-the-parts (SOTP) valuation method, applying a 20x FY24E P/E for the ad-tech business and a 3x FY24E P/S for the mar-tech business, resulting in a target price of HK$6.00 [2][14]. - The projected earnings compound annual growth rate (CAGR) for FY24-26 is estimated at 21%, indicating strong growth potential compared to industry peers [2][14].
Focusing on margin enhancement