公司首次覆盖报告：钼景气持续，龙头持续受益

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, Jinmoly Co., Ltd. (601958.SH) [1] Core Views - The company is a leading player in the molybdenum industry, benefiting from high-quality molybdenum resources and a concentrated shareholding structure, with the Shaanxi Provincial State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission holding 72.02% of the shares [2][11]. - Molybdenum prices are expected to rise due to supply-side disruptions and increasing demand, which will enhance the company's profitability. The projected net profits for 2023-2025 are estimated at 3.126 billion, 3.369 billion, and 3.410 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 11.2, 10.4, and 10.3 times [2][45]. Supply Side Summary - Global molybdenum production has seen a significant decline from 298,000 tons in 2020 to 250,000 tons in 2022, a drop of 16.1%, with a slight recovery to 260,000 tons in 2023. The supply side is becoming increasingly rigid due to declining ore grades in existing mines [3][25]. - Molybdenum resource reserves have also decreased from 1.8 million tons in 2020 to 1.5 million tons in 2023, despite a rebound from 1.2 million tons in 2022 [3][28]. Demand Side Summary - The demand for molybdenum is closely tied to the manufacturing sector, particularly in high-end industries such as aerospace, military, and automotive, which are expected to drive demand growth. In 2022, the global molybdenum consumption exceeded 280,000 tons, with nearly 80% of the demand coming from the steel industry [4][36]. - In the first half of 2023, global molybdenum consumption decreased by 3.44%, with China maintaining the largest share at 41% of global demand [38]. Financial Forecast and Investment Recommendations - The company is expected to maintain stable production levels with projected revenues of 11.631 billion, 12.096 billion, and 12.003 billion yuan for 2023-2025, with gross profit margins of 48.8%, 51.1%, and 51.5% respectively [5][43]. - The company’s valuation is considered reasonable compared to peers, with a lower P/E ratio than the average of comparable companies, indicating potential for price appreciation [45].