主焦煤盈利能力强，高股息有望推升估值修复

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate-A" investment rating for Pingmei Shenma Group Co., Ltd. (601666.SH) [1][5] Core Views - The strong profitability of coking coal and the expected high dividend yield are likely to drive valuation recovery [1][5] - The company is expected to continue its strategy of increasing the production of premium coal, with a projected production of 13.05 million tons in 2024 and an increase in the premium coal production rate to 43% [2][4] Summary by Sections Market Performance - As of March 19, 2024, the closing price is CNY 12.22, with a year-to-date high of CNY 14.85 and a low of CNY 7.21 [2] - The circulating A-shares amount to 2.333 billion, with a total market capitalization of CNY 28.664 billion [2] Financial Performance - In 2023, the company achieved operating revenue of CNY 31.561 billion, a decrease of 12.44% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of CNY 4.003 billion, down 30.25% year-on-year [3][6] - The basic earnings per share (EPS) is CNY 1.73, with a diluted EPS also at CNY 1.73 [2][3] Production and Profitability - The company’s raw coal production reached 30.71 million tons in 2023, a year-on-year increase of 1.35%, while premium coal production was 12.69 million tons, up 6.91% year-on-year [2][4] - The gross profit margin for premium coal was 38.05%, although it decreased by 4.27 percentage points year-on-year, remaining significantly higher than the mixed coal margin of 14.02% [2][4] Dividend Policy - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of CNY 9.90 per 10 shares (including tax), totaling CNY 2.425 billion, which accounts for 60.59% of the net profit available for distribution [2][4] - The expected dividend yield based on the stock price as of March 18, 2024, is 8.3% [2][4] Future Outlook - The company is projected to have EPS of CNY 1.84, CNY 2.05, and CNY 2.02 for the years 2024 to 2026, respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 6.5, 5.8, and 5.9 [5][6] - The company’s strong resource base and commitment to resolving competition issues with its controlling shareholder suggest potential for external growth [4][5]