WLY(000858) 光大证券·2024-03-19 16:00Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Wuliangye (000858 SZ) with a target price of 157 37 RMB [2][16] Core Views - Wuliangye is actively deepening its marketing reforms in 2024 focusing on improving sales stabilizing prices enhancing cost efficiency and optimizing team structure The company's strategic clarity and strong reform confidence are expected to yield tangible results [1][14] - The demand for Wuliangye's flagship product Pu Wu has been robust with channel inventory at healthy levels The company has raised the ex-factory price of Pu Wu from 969 RMB to 1019 RMB per bottle starting February 5 2024 and is expected to further control supply to push up wholesale prices during the off-season [1][14] - Wuliangye is expanding its product portfolio with new additions such as 45/68-degree Wuliangye to fill different price segments and contribute to incremental growth The company aims to achieve higher growth targets for products like 1618 and 39-degree Wuliangye [1][14] Financial Projections - Revenue is projected to grow from 66 209 million RMB in 2021 to 102 928 million RMB in 2025 with a CAGR of 11 68% [3][16] - Net profit is expected to increase from 23 377 million RMB in 2021 to 38 278 million RMB in 2025 with a CAGR of 12 85% [3][16] - EPS is forecasted to rise from 6 02 RMB in 2021 to 9 86 RMB in 2025 [3][16] - The P/E ratio is expected to decline from 26x in 2021 to 16x in 2025 indicating potential valuation upside [3][16] Operational Highlights - Wuliangye's gross margin is projected to improve from 75 4% in 2021 to 77 2% in 2025 driven by product mix optimization and cost control [21] - The company's ROE (diluted) is expected to remain stable around 23% from 2021 to 2025 reflecting consistent profitability [3][16] - Wuliangye's debt-to-asset ratio is forecasted to stay around 25% indicating a healthy balance sheet structure [21] Market Performance - Wuliangye's total market capitalization stands at 610 849 billion RMB with a total share capital of 3 882 billion shares [4][17] - The stock has shown strong relative performance with a 10 48% increase over the past month and 10 72% over the past three months [6][19]