舍得酒业23年报点评：符合预期，静待行业拐点

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company is expected to maintain stable pricing and controllable channels despite significant pressure in the high-end liquor industry in 2023, actively helping channels to reduce inventory [2] - The company’s main products have seen a significant increase in opening rates, and inventory levels are currently within safe limits, which is expected to enhance the willingness of distributors to collect payments [2] - The company is focusing on deepening its presence in mature markets while stimulating consumption in emerging markets through strategic campaigns [2] Financial Performance Summary - In Q4 2023, the company reported revenue of 1.84 billion (up 27.6%) and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 480 million (down 1.9%) [1] - For the full year 2023, total revenue reached 7.08 billion (up 16.9%), with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.77 billion (up 5.1%) [1] - The company’s gross margin for 2023 was 74.5%, a decrease of 3.2 percentage points year-on-year [1] Revenue Breakdown - The company’s liquor business generated revenue of 6.56 billion in 2023, an increase of 16.0% year-on-year, with sales volume of 43,500 kiloliters (up 5.2%) [1] - The revenue from mid-to-high-end liquor was 5.655 billion, while ordinary liquor revenue was 905 million, both showing growth of 16.0% and 16.1% respectively [1] - The average price for mid-to-high-end liquor was 150,700 per kiloliter, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 10.3% [1] Profitability Forecast - The company is projected to achieve total revenue of 8.11 billion, 9.55 billion, and 11.375 billion for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 14.5%, 17.8%, and 19.1% [2] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be 2.055 billion, 2.466 billion, and 3.028 billion for the same years, with growth rates of 16.0%, 20.0%, and 22.8% respectively [2] - The current price-to-earnings ratio (P/E) is projected to be 13.76, 11.47, and 9.34 for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively [2]