Shede Spirits (SH:600702) Ping An Securities·2024-03-19 16:00Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" investment rating for the company [2][7]. Core Views - The company achieved a stable revenue growth of 16.9% year-on-year in 2023, with total revenue reaching 7.08 billion yuan and a net profit of 1.77 billion yuan, reflecting a 5.1% increase [3][6]. - The company is focusing on high-quality development and expanding its product matrix nationally, with a significant increase in cash dividends to shareholders [7]. - The report anticipates continued growth in revenue and net profit, projecting net profit of 2.05 billion yuan for 2024, representing a 16% increase [6][11]. Financial Performance Summary - In 2023, the company reported a gross margin of 74.5%, down 3.1 percentage points from the previous year, with a net profit margin of 25.0%, down 2.8 percentage points [5][11]. - The company’s revenue from wholesale and e-commerce channels was 6.13 billion yuan and 430 million yuan respectively, with year-on-year growth of 16.5% and 9.4% [4][5]. - The average selling price for high-end liquor decreased by 9.3% to 296,000 yuan per ton, while the price for ordinary liquor increased by 25.7% to 37,000 yuan per ton [5][6]. Future Projections - The company is expected to continue its growth trajectory, with projected revenues of 8.15 billion yuan in 2024 and 9.30 billion yuan in 2025, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 15.1% and 14.1% respectively [6][10]. - The report forecasts a gradual improvement in gross margin, reaching 75.5% by 2026 [11]. - The earnings per share (EPS) is projected to increase from 5.32 yuan in 2023 to 8.11 yuan by 2026 [10][11].