CMSK(SZ:001979) Southwest Securities·2024-03-19 16:00Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Hold" rating for China Merchants Shekou Industrial Zone Holdings Co Ltd (CMSK) with a current price of 9.49 CNY [1] Core Views - CMSK achieved a 48.2% YoY increase in net profit attributable to the parent company, reaching 6.32 billion CNY in 2023, driven by a 3.4 billion CNY increase in investment income [2] - The company's contracted sales area grew by 2.5% YoY to 12.23 million square meters, with sales ranking fifth in the industry [2] - CMSK's asset operation business generated 6.69 billion CNY in revenue, with EBITDA of 3.3 billion CNY, showing a 0.5% YoY increase [2] Financial Performance - Revenue declined by 4.4% YoY to 175.01 billion CNY in 2023, while gross margin decreased by 3.4 percentage points to 15.9% [2] - The company's contract liabilities increased by 11.5% YoY to 161.53 billion CNY, with a net debt ratio of 54.58% and a cash-to-short-term debt ratio of 1.28 [2] - CMSK's comprehensive financing cost decreased by 42 basis points to 3.47% [2] Business Development - CMSK acquired 55 land parcels in 2023, with a total construction area of 5.9 million square meters and a total land cost of 113.4 billion CNY, focusing on core cities [2] - The company's asset operation business includes 38 commercial projects, 32 office buildings, 30 industrial parks, 45 long-term rental apartments, and 18 hotels [2] - CMSK's urban services business covers a property management area of 350 million square meters, with new annual contracts worth 4.04 billion CNY [2] Profit Forecast - The report forecasts a 14.3% CAGR for CMSK's net profit attributable to the parent company from 2024 to 2026 [3] - Revenue is expected to grow at a CAGR of 7.1% from 2024 to 2026, reaching 214.89 billion CNY by 2026 [4] - The company's EPS is projected to increase from 0.70 CNY in 2023 to 1.04 CNY in 2026 [4] Valuation Metrics - CMSK's PE ratio is expected to decline from 14 in 2024 to 9.1 in 2026, while the PB ratio remains stable at around 0.27 [4] - The company's ROE is forecasted to improve from 3.07% in 2023 to 4.16% in 2026 [4]