YADEA(HK:01585) KAIYUAN SECURITIES·2024-03-20 16:00Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [2][22]. Core Views - The company's 2023 performance met expectations, with a revenue of 34.763 billion yuan (+11.9%) and a net profit of 2.640 billion yuan (+22.2%). The growth was primarily driven by high sales of electric bicycles, batteries, and chargers [3][11]. - The company is expected to continue its growth trajectory, with forecasts for net profits of 3.244 billion yuan, 3.912 billion yuan, and 4.654 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively [22]. Summary by Sections 1. 2023 Performance and Structural Adjustments - In 2023, the company achieved a total revenue of 34.763 billion yuan (+11.9%) and a net profit of 2.640 billion yuan (+22.2%). The revenue growth was mainly attributed to high sales of electric bicycles, batteries, and chargers. The company launched 33 new electric bicycle models and 16 new electric scooter models, enhancing design, smart features, and performance [11][21]. 2. Revenue Breakdown and Product Performance - The total sales of electric two-wheelers in 2023 reached 16.5215 million units (+17.9%), generating a revenue of 24.587 billion yuan (+11.9%), accounting for 70.7% of total revenue. Electric bicycle revenue was 15.952 billion yuan (+24.4%) with sales of 11.56 million units (+28.8%) [4][14]. - The average selling price (ASP) for electric bicycles in 2023 was 2,104 yuan (down 5.1% YoY), with a slight increase in H2 2023 to 2,132 yuan (+2.7% QoQ) [16]. 3. Profitability and Cost Management - The overall gross margin for 2023 was 16.9% (down 1.1 percentage points), while the net profit margin improved to 7.6% (+0.6 percentage points) due to effective cost control and other income increases [18][20]. 4. Future Outlook - The company is optimistic about domestic growth driven by product and channel accumulation. The introduction of the new TTFAR 6.0 system in the Crown 6 series is expected to enhance market performance. The number of distributors reached 4,000, with over 40,000 distribution points by the end of 2023 [5][21]. - Internationally, the company is expanding in Southeast Asia, with a new factory in Vietnam expected to enhance production capacity [21]. 5. Earnings Forecast and Investment Recommendations - The company is projected to maintain its leading position in the electric two-wheeler industry, with expected net profits of 3.244 billion yuan, 3.912 billion yuan, and 4.654 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively. The current price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios are 11.8, 9.8, and 8.2 for the respective years [22].