Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [2] Core Views - The company achieved a record high EBITDA margin of 19.3% in 2023, with revenue reaching $3.68 billion, a year-on-year increase of 27.9%. On a comparable currency-neutral basis, revenue grew by 30.4% year-on-year [6][7] - The company has restarted dividends after a hiatus since 2020, distributing $150 million, which represents a payout ratio of 36% [6] - The company is expected to maintain high profitability levels in Q4 2023, with revenue projected at $950 million, and an adjusted EBITDA margin of 19.1% [6] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2023, the company reported a net profit of $417 million, a year-on-year increase of 33.3%, and a currency-neutral increase of 34.6% [6] - The gross margin for 2023 was 59.3%, up 3.5 percentage points year-on-year [6] - The company’s revenue for Q4 2023 is expected to show a 15.1% increase compared to 2019 on a currency-neutral basis [6] Regional Performance - The Asia-Pacific region showed a 20% increase in revenue compared to 2019, while North America and Europe saw increases of 8% and 26.3%, respectively. Latin America experienced a significant growth of 71.6% [6] - The adjusted EBITDA margins by region for 2023 were 23.8% (Asia-Pacific), 20.4% (North America), 19% (Europe), and 13.9% (Latin America) [6] Brand Performance - The company’s three main brands, Samsonite, Tumi, and American Tourister, achieved revenues of $1.85 billion, $880 million, and $650 million, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 28%, 34%, and 26% [6] - Tumi led the growth across all regions, with revenue increases of 68% in Asia-Pacific and 71% in Latin America [6] Cost Management and Leverage - The company has reduced fixed costs as a percentage of revenue to 22.7% in 2023 from 27.3% in 2019, despite a 19% net reduction in store count [7] - Inventory levels were optimized, with a year-end inventory of $700 million, a 1% increase year-on-year, and a 5% decrease from the previous quarter [7] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company is projected to achieve net profits of $485 million and $545 million in 2024 and 2025, respectively, with a PE valuation range of 14-15X for 2024 [7][8] - The estimated reasonable share price range for 2024 is between HKD 36.64 and HKD 39.25, based on a USD to HKD exchange rate of 7.83 [7]
2023重启分红，全年ebitda margin升至19.3%