2023年年报点评：铜板块投资收益可观，分红维持高位

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommend" rating for the company [1][2] Core Views - The company's copper segment investment returns are significant, and the high dividend payout ratio is maintained [1] - The company's salt lake lithium extraction has a cost advantage, and the expansion projects in the potassium, lithium, and copper sectors are progressing simultaneously [1] - The company is expected to achieve net profits attributable to the parent company of 24.2, 30.2, and 44.3 billion yuan in 2024-2026, with corresponding P/E ratios of 20, 16, and 11 times as of March 20, 2024 [1] Financial Performance - In 2023, the company achieved revenue of 5.23 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 36.2%, and net profit attributable to the parent company of 3.42 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 39.5% [1] - In Q4 2023, the company achieved revenue of 1.04 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 58.2%, and net profit attributable to the parent company of 450 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 69.7% [1] - The company's 2023 dividend payout ratio was 73.4%, exceeding expectations [1] Lithium Segment - In 2023, the lithium segment contributed approximately 1.3 billion yuan in performance, with a net profit per ton of 126,000 yuan [1] - The actual production and sales of lithium in 2023 were 12,100 tons and 10,300 tons, respectively, slightly below the target [1] - The average selling price of lithium in 2023 was 192,000 yuan per ton, with a discount coefficient of about 96% in Q4 2023 [1] - The production cost per ton of lithium in 2023 was 37,000 yuan, an increase of 6,000 yuan year-on-year, but still significantly advantageous compared to ore-based lithium extraction [1] Potassium Segment - In 2023, the potassium segment contributed approximately 980 million yuan in performance, with a net profit per ton of 760 yuan [1] - The actual production and sales of potassium chloride in 2023 were 1.09 million tons and 1.29 million tons, respectively, exceeding the target [1] - The average selling price of potassium chloride in 2023 was 2,486 yuan per ton, with a year-on-year decrease of 28.6% [1] - The production cost per ton of potassium chloride in 2023 was 1,089 yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.6% [1] Copper Segment - In 2023, the company's investment in the Julong Copper Mine yielded significant returns, with a net profit of 4.21 billion yuan and a net profit per ton of 27,000 yuan [1] - The company holds a 30.78% stake in Julong Copper and received an investment return of 1.3 billion yuan in 2023 [1] - The second phase of the Julong Copper Mine expansion project was approved in February 2024, with plans to increase annual copper production to 300,000-350,000 tons and molybdenum concentrate to 13,000 tons by the end of 2025 [1] - The third phase of the project plans to add 250,000 tons of copper production capacity, with a total capacity of 600,000 tons after completion [1] Production and Sales Guidance - The company's production and sales guidance for 2024 is 1.05 million tons of potassium chloride and 10,500 tons of lithium carbonate [1] Financial Forecast - The company's revenue is expected to be 5.23, 3.28, 5.47, and 6.65 billion yuan in 2023-2026, with year-on-year growth rates of -36.2%, -37.2%, 66.5%, and 21.6%, respectively [2] - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be 3.42, 2.42, 3.02, and 4.43 billion yuan in 2023-2026, with year-on-year growth rates of -39.5%, -29.1%, 24.4%, and 46.8%, respectively [2] - The EPS is expected to be 2.16, 1.53, 1.91, and 2.80 yuan in 2023-2026, with corresponding P/E ratios of 14, 20, 16, and 11 times [2]