Lakala(300773) 国泰君安·2024-03-20 16:00Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Lakala (300773) with a target price of 28.70 yuan, corresponding to a 25x P/E for 2024 [14][30] Core Viewpoints - The payment industry's competitive landscape is improving, leading to an increase in net fee rates for payment companies, benefiting leading companies like Lakala [10][14][27] - Lakala, as a leading company in the industry, is expected to benefit significantly from the improved competitive landscape, with potential for rapid earnings growth [14][34] - The company's transaction volume and market share are leading in the industry, and its current low transaction fee rate positions it well for potential fee increases [34][48] - A neutral assumption suggests that a fee increase could lead to a 16% revenue growth and a 43% profit growth for Lakala [14][52] Financial Summary - Revenue for 2021 was 6,618 million yuan, with a 19% year-on-year growth, but it dropped to 5,394 million yuan in 2022, a decline of 18% [7] - Net profit attributable to the parent company in 2021 was 1,083 million yuan, but it turned to a loss of 1,437 million yuan in 2022 [7] - The report forecasts revenue to grow to 7,163 million yuan in 2024 and 8,415 million yuan in 2025, with net profit expected to reach 926 million yuan and 1,199 million yuan, respectively [7][14] Industry Analysis - The payment industry is experiencing a tightening of payment licenses, with only 186 licenses remaining as of September 2023, leading to a more concentrated market [10] - The average net fee rate for four listed payment companies increased from 0.118% in 2022 to 0.126% in the first half of 2023, driven by stricter regulations and increased payment costs [27][40] - Lakala's transaction volume grew from 1,740 billion yuan in the first half of 2020 to 2,270 billion yuan in the first half of 2023, significantly higher than its peers [34] Company-Specific Insights - Lakala implemented a stock incentive plan in 2023, granting 23.355 million restricted shares to directors, senior management, and core employees, with performance targets set for 2023 and 2024 [17][42] - The company's net profit target for 2023 is set at 700 million yuan, with a cumulative target of 1.6 billion yuan for 2023-2024, indicating strong performance pressure and motivation for fee increases [17][42] - Lakala's market share in the offline acquiring market was 12.60% in 2022, and its average net fee rate in the first half of 2023 was 0.112%, lower than its peers, suggesting room for fee increases [34][48]