pingmei coal(SH:601666) Guotai Junan Securities·2024-03-20 16:00Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Pingmei Co Ltd (601666) with a target price of CNY 16 11, up from the previous target of CNY 12 25 [1][3] Core Views - The company's performance in Q4 2023 was driven by rising coking coal prices, and Q1 2024 is expected to see further growth due to continued price increases [1] - The company's refined coal strategy is progressing steadily, with refined coal production showing stable growth [1] - Future growth is expected from asset injections by the parent group, which will accelerate the company's coal-coking integration [1] Financial Performance - In 2023, the company achieved revenue of CNY 31 561 billion, down 12 44% YoY, and net profit of CNY 4 002 billion, down 30 25% YoY, in line with market expectations [1] - The company's EPS for 2024 and 2025 is forecasted at CNY 1 79 and CNY 1 82, respectively, with a new 2026 EPS forecast of CNY 1 92 [1] - The company's refined coal production reached 12 69 million tons in 2023, up 6 83% YoY, with refined coal accounting for 75% of total revenue [1] Valuation and Market Data - The company's market capitalization is CNY 28 5 billion, with a total share capital of 2 346 million shares and a free float of 99% [1] - The stock's 52-week price range is CNY 7 23 to CNY 14 60, with a current price of CNY 12 15 [1][3] - The company's EV/EBITDA for 2024 is estimated at 2 79x, with a PE ratio of 6 67x and a dividend yield of 9 0% [1][4] Industry and Peer Comparison - The company operates in the coal and energy sector, with peers including China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal Industry, Yankuang Energy, and Panjiang Coal [6] - The average PE ratio for comparable companies is 7 70x for 2023, 11 15x for 2024, and 9 88x for 2025 [6]