POP MART(09992) 开源证券·2024-03-20 16:00Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [2] Core Views - The company achieved revenue of 6.301 billion yuan in 2023, representing a year-on-year increase of 36.5%, and a net profit of 1.089 billion yuan, up 128.9% year-on-year. The growth in revenue and profit is attributed to the recovery of domestic offline traffic and accelerated overseas expansion. The forecast for net profit from 2024 to 2026 is set at 1.45 billion, 1.86 billion, and 2.35 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding EPS of 1.08, 1.38, and 1.75 yuan. The current stock price corresponds to PE ratios of 19.4, 15.1, and 11.9 times for the respective years [4][20]. Summary by Sections 1. Revenue Performance - The company reported a revenue of 6.301 billion yuan in 2023, a 36.5% increase year-on-year, with a net profit of 1.089 billion yuan, reflecting a 128.9% increase. The revenue growth was significantly higher than profit growth, driven by the recovery of domestic offline store traffic and accelerated overseas expansion [11][4]. 2. Profitability - The gross profit margin for 2023 was 61.3%, an increase of 3.8 percentage points year-on-year. This improvement was mainly due to supplier optimization, which reduced procurement costs and increased product sales prices. The net profit margin reached 17.3%, up 7.0 percentage points year-on-year [5][14]. 3. IP Analysis - In 2023, the company had 10 IPs generating over 100 million yuan in revenue, with MOLLY and SKULLPANDA each exceeding 1 billion yuan. The classic IPs generated 3.15 billion yuan, accounting for 49.7% of total revenue, while emerging IPs like 小野 Hirono saw a revenue increase of 149.5% year-on-year [6][16]. 4. Channel Analysis - Domestic offline revenue reached 3.03 billion yuan, a 45.6% increase, while online revenue was 1.71 billion yuan, down 6.5%. The company saw significant growth in overseas revenue, which reached 640 million yuan, a 325% increase, with the number of retail stores doubling to 80 [19][4]. 5. Earnings Forecast and Investment Advice - The company is expected to maintain a revenue growth rate of over 30% in 2024, with a clear path for its second growth curve through overseas expansion. The forecast for net profit from 2024 to 2026 has been revised upwards, and the company maintains a "Buy" rating [20][4].