Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [2][3] Core Views - The company is expected to benefit from the recovery of domestic and outbound tourism, with a positive cycle of improving profit margins [2] - The adjusted net profit estimates for 2024 and 2025 have been raised to 2.715 billion and 3.291 billion RMB respectively, with a new estimate for 2026 at 4.002 billion RMB [2] - The target market capitalization is set at 53.3 billion RMB, corresponding to a target price of 25.90 HKD, based on a 20x PE valuation for 2024 [2] Financial Summary - Revenue for 2023Q4 reached 3.145 billion RMB, representing a year-on-year increase of 109.63% [2] - Adjusted EBITDA for the same period was 716 million RMB, up 193% year-on-year [2] - The adjusted net profit for 2023Q4 was 483 million RMB, compared to 37 million RMB in 2022Q4, with an adjusted net profit margin of 15.3% [2] - The company experienced a significant reduction in sales expense ratio from 37.9% in 2022Q4 to 35.8% in 2023Q4, and a decrease in management expense ratio from 6% in 2023Q3 to 3.6% in 2023Q4 [2] Business Outlook - The company has integrated travel agency operations, which are expected to contribute to the tourism business segment, potentially accounting for 15% of total revenue [2] - The outbound tourism business is projected to grow faster than domestic tourism in 2024, with the company actively expanding its international supply chain [2] - The company is currently in a phase of improving market conditions, with increased online travel engagement in lower-tier cities and enhanced profit margins [2]
2023Q4业绩点评：旅游出行高景气延续，增量业务丰富供给