WISCOM(002090) 东方财富证券·2024-03-21 16:00Investment Rating - Buy (首次覆盖) [2] Core Views - The company is expected to achieve revenue of 1.78/2.20/2.55 billion yuan in 2023-2025, with year-on-year growth of 16.30%/23.65%/16.00% [7] - Net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be 0.65/1.24/1.74 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth of 116.27%/91.22%/40.37% [7] - The company's smart city business is stabilizing, and the profit side has a recovery expectation [7] - The smart energy sector is benefiting from the trend of grid intelligence, with strong performance in power generation and substation automation, and potential incremental contributions from power distribution and consumption [7] - The company is also expanding into electricity sales, which is expected to bring performance elasticity [7] Financial Performance - Total market capitalization: 3.87 billion yuan [2] - Circulating market capitalization: 3.83 billion yuan [2] - 52-week high/low stock price: 13.77/5.99 yuan [2] - 52-week high/low PE ratio: 175.50/42.83 [2] - 52-week high/low PB ratio: 4.39/2.11 [2] - 52-week stock price change: -24.98% [2] - 52-week turnover rate: 563.09% [2] - Revenue in 2022: 1.53 billion yuan, with a growth rate of -6.89% [3] - Revenue in 2023E: 1.78 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 16.30% [3] - Revenue in 2024E: 2.20 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 23.65% [3] - Revenue in 2025E: 2.55 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 16.00% [3] - EBITDA in 2022: 32.91 million yuan [3] - EBITDA in 2023E: 93.93 million yuan [3] - EBITDA in 2024E: 157.69 million yuan [3] - EBITDA in 2025E: 209.71 million yuan [3] - Net profit attributable to the parent company in 2022: 30.02 million yuan, with a growth rate of -79.29% [3] - Net profit attributable to the parent company in 2023E: 64.92 million yuan, with a growth rate of 116.27% [3] - Net profit attributable to the parent company in 2024E: 124.15 million yuan, with a growth rate of 91.22% [3] - Net profit attributable to the parent company in 2025E: 174.26 million yuan, with a growth rate of 40.37% [3] - EPS in 2022: 0.08 yuan/share [3] - EPS in 2023E: 0.16 yuan/share [3] - EPS in 2024E: 0.31 yuan/share [3] - EPS in 2025E: 0.43 yuan/share [3] - PE ratio in 2022: 153.99 [3] - PE ratio in 2023E: 56.85 [3] - PE ratio in 2024E: 29.73 [3] - PE ratio in 2025E: 21.18 [3] - PB ratio in 2022: 3.93 [3] - PB ratio in 2023E: 2.83 [3] - PB ratio in 2024E: 2.60 [3] - PB ratio in 2025E: 2.33 [3] - EV/EBITDA in 2022: 136.60 [3] - EV/EBITDA in 2023E: 34.31 [3] - EV/EBITDA in 2024E: 19.82 [3] - EV/EBITDA in 2025E: 14.06 [3] Business Segments Smart City - The smart city segment is divided into intelligent products and services, and IT-related products and services [9] - Revenue from the smart city segment has been declining due to the overall economic environment and market competition, but orders began to recover in the first half of 2023 [9] - The company's strategy for the smart city segment is to select high-quality projects to ensure reasonable profit margins while maintaining stable business scale [9] - Revenue from the smart city segment is expected to grow by 3% in 2024 and 2025 [9] - The gross margin for the smart city segment is expected to remain stable at the level of the first half of 2023 [9] Smart Energy - The smart energy segment is divided into power plant automation, substation automation, power distribution and consumption automation, and power design and integrated operation and maintenance [9] - In the power plant automation sector, the company is actively seizing opportunities in new energy and thermal power generation, with revenue expected to grow by 30% in 2024 and 20% in 2025 [9] - The gross margin for the power plant automation sector is expected to remain above 30% [9] - In the substation automation sector, the company is a major supplier to State Grid and China Southern Grid, with revenue expected to grow by 50% in 2024 and 20% in 2025 [9] - The gross margin for the substation automation sector is expected to be 32% in 2024 and 30% in 2025 [9] - In the power distribution and consumption automation sector, the company is benefiting from the trend of power distribution and consumption intelligence, with revenue expected to grow by 30% in 2024 and 25% in 2025 [9] - The gross margin for the power distribution and consumption automation sector is expected to be 34% in 2024 and 35% in 2025 [9] - In the power design and integrated operation and maintenance sector, the company is exploring opportunities in low-carbon parks, with revenue expected to grow by 55% in 2023, 30% in 2024, and 20% in 2025 [9] - The gross margin for the power design and integrated operation and maintenance sector is expected to remain at the level of the first half of 2023 [9] Industry Trends - The power grid investment is shifting towards power distribution and consumption, with a focus on high-quality development [12] - The construction of a new power system emphasizes smart grids, with investment in power distribution and consumption accounting for nearly half of the total investment [50] - The State Grid's investment in power distribution and consumption accounted for 57.4% of total investment in 2020, while China Southern Grid plans to invest 320 billion yuan in power distribution during the 14th Five-Year Plan period, accounting for 47.8% of total investment [50] - The power market is accelerating, with policies promoting virtual power plants and spot trading [12] Company History and Strategy - The company originated from Southeast University and has a clear equity structure [17] - The company's core subsidiaries include Nanjing Dongda Jinzhi, Jiangsu Dongda Jinzhi, and Shanghai Jinzhi Zuidong [19] - The company's smart energy segment has been growing steadily, with revenue accounting for 60.73% of total revenue in the first half of 2023 [20] - The company's strategy is to focus on smart city and smart energy businesses, with a strong emphasis on innovation and market opportunities [22]