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2023年报点评:村镇银行盈利能力优异,异地贡献提升

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for Changshu Bank with a target price of 8.60 CNY, compared to the current price of 6.94 CNY [2][5]. Core Views - Changshu Bank's profitability remains strong, with a notable contribution from rural banks and an increase in personal loans, which now account for nearly 30% of total loans [2][5]. - The bank's net profit for 2023 reached 3.282 billion CNY, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 19.6%, although the growth rate has slightly declined compared to the first three quarters of 2023 [2][5]. - The bank's net interest margin has narrowed by 9 basis points to 2.86% for the year, primarily due to competitive pricing in microloans and increased credit costs [2][5]. Financial Performance Summary - For 2023, Changshu Bank achieved total operating income of 9.870 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 12.1% [2][5]. - The bank's total loans reached 222.439 billion CNY, growing by 15.0% year-on-year, while interest-earning assets increased by 15.9% to 334.192 billion CNY [2][5]. - The bank's return on equity (ROE) improved to 13.69% in 2023, with a non-performing loan (NPL) ratio maintained at a low level of 0.75% [2][5]. Loan Structure and Market Expansion - The bank has seen a shift in its loan structure, with retail loans growing significantly, particularly personal operating loans, which increased by 21.1% year-on-year [2][5]. - The contribution of loans from outside Jiangsu province has risen, with loans from branches in other regions accounting for 51.5% of total loans, up nearly 9.3 percentage points from 2022 [2][5]. - The bank's strategy focuses on small and micro enterprises, leveraging its "Changshu Microloan Model" to enhance market penetration and risk management [2][5]. Future Outlook - The report projects revenue growth rates of 11.4%, 12.4%, and 13.7% for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with net profit growth rates of 17.2%, 19.9%, and 19.4% for the same years [5][6]. - The bank's current price-to-book (PB) ratio is estimated at 0.69X for 2024, with a target PB of 0.85X, indicating potential upside in the stock price [5][6].