SUNNY OPTICAL(HK:02382) KAIYUAN SECURITIES·2024-03-22 16:00Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform" (Maintain) [3][8]. Core Views - The company is expected to experience a recovery in mobile optical components and growth in XR (Extended Reality) business, which may drive a return to rapid growth [8]. - The 2024 earnings guidance is below market expectations, leading to a downward revision of net profit forecasts for 2024 and 2025 [8]. - The current stock price of HKD 43.7 corresponds to a P/E ratio of 31.9 for 2024, 24.3 for 2025, and 19.6 for 2026 [8]. Financial Summary and Valuation Metrics - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: - 2022A: HKD 33,197 million - 2023A: HKD 31,681 million - 2024E: HKD 33,859 million - 2025E: HKD 37,909 million - 2026E: HKD 43,799 million - Year-over-year growth rates are projected at -11.5% for 2022A to 2023A, 4.6% for 2023A to 2024E, and increasing to 15.5% by 2026E [6]. - Net profit forecasts are as follows: - 2022A: HKD 2,409 million - 2023A: HKD 1,099 million - 2024E: HKD 1,358 million - 2025E: HKD 1,781 million - 2026E: HKD 2,208 million - Year-over-year growth rates are projected at -51.7% for 2022A to 2023A, recovering to 23.5% by 2024E [6]. - Gross margin is expected to improve from 14.5% in 2023A to 16.6% in 2024E, while net margin is projected to increase from 3.5% in 2023A to 4.0% in 2024E [6]. - The company’s return on equity (ROE) is expected to rise from 4.9% in 2023A to 5.7% in 2024E [6]. Business Outlook - The company anticipates that mobile module shipments will remain flat year-over-year in 2024, with significant improvements in average selling price (ASP) and gross margin [10]. - The automotive optical business is projected to grow, but at a slower pace due to overall market pressures [10]. - The VR segment is expected to see a 15% increase in revenue, with potential for exceeding expectations due to new product launches from major clients [10].