Peacebird(SH:603877) Guotai Junan Securities·2024-03-23 16:00Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" with a target price of 20.32 CNY, down from a previous forecast of 25.60 CNY, while the current price is 16.82 CNY [14][25]. Core Views - The report highlights that the company's operational quality continues to improve, and organizational changes are gradually showing results. The company experienced a significant increase in net profit attributable to shareholders, up 127% year-on-year in 2023, driven by a reduction in retail discounts and ongoing cost control measures. The earnings elasticity for 2024 is expected to remain strong [14][25]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company is a retail-oriented multi-brand fashion apparel company that implements a gradient brand development strategy, targeting differentiated market segments. It emphasizes product research and design, integrating current fashion trends into its offerings, and employs a sales model that combines direct sales and franchising [3]. Financial Performance - In 2023, the company's revenue decreased by 9.4%, but net profit increased by 127%, indicating a turnaround. The report notes that the company has improved its channel management quality and profitability significantly [25][22]. - The financial forecast for 2024 estimates total revenue of 8,608 million CNY, with a projected net profit of 603 million CNY, reflecting a growth rate of 42.8% [22]. Market Position - The company is positioned as a leader in the mass apparel industry, with a stable market position and good earnings elasticity. The report compares it with peers like Semir and Hailan Home, suggesting a higher-than-average PE ratio of 16 for 2024, which supports the target price of 20.32 CNY [25][22]. Operational Metrics - The report indicates that the company has successfully reduced inventory levels, with year-end inventory down 29% year-on-year, and anticipates a return to positive growth in offline store numbers in 2024 [25][22]. Profitability Indicators - The report projects improvements in profitability metrics, with EBIT margin expected to rise to 10.1% in 2024 and net profit margin to 7.0% [22]. Valuation Metrics - The company is valued at a market capitalization of 7,970 million CNY, with a PE ratio of 18.89 for 2023, expected to decrease to 13.23 in 2024 [15][22]. Stock Performance - The stock has shown a price range of 14.27 to 27.39 CNY over the past 52 weeks, with a current price of 16.82 CNY [15]. Future Outlook - The report anticipates that the company's performance will continue to grow rapidly, supported by ongoing improvements in operational efficiency and market conditions [25][22].