ENN-NG(600803) 中金公司·2024-03-23 16:00Investment Rating - The report assigns an Outperform rating to the stock with a target price of RMB 25.00 [1] Core Views - The company's core profit for 2023 met expectations, with a core profit of RMB 6.4 billion, up 5% YoY [3] - The company's domestic platform trading gas sales volume increased by 110% YoY to 3.11 billion cubic meters in 2023, driven by lower gas prices and expanded customer coverage [4] - The company is close to net cash, with a stable dividend policy, promising RMB 0.91/1.03/1.14 per share for 2023-2025 [4] - The company's valuation is expected to rise due to increased domestic platform trading gas sales and improved operations in the city gas business [5] Financial Performance - Revenue for 2023 was RMB 143.8 billion, down 7% YoY, while net profit attributable to shareholders was RMB 7.1 billion, up 21% YoY [3] - The company's natural gas sales volume in 2022 was 38.7 billion cubic meters, up 6.8% YoY, with platform trading gas sales volume increasing by 44% YoY to 5.1 billion cubic meters [3] - The company's core profit in 2022 was RMB 3.8 billion, with platform trading gas contributing RMB 3.4 billion, up 56% YoY [3] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The 2024 net profit forecast is revised down by 21.4% to RMB 6.08 billion, with a 2025 forecast of RMB 6.7 billion [5] - The current stock price implies a 9.8x/8.9x P/E for 2024/2025, with a target price implying a 12.7x/11.6x P/E and a 30.6% upside [5] Industry and Peer Comparison - The company's valuation is compared to peers in the gas and energy sector, with a 2024E P/E of 9.8x and a 2025E P/E of 8.9x, which is competitive within the industry [12]