Changshu Bank(601128) 海通证券·2024-03-24 16:00Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [1] Core Views - The report highlights that the company maintained a double-digit revenue growth in Q4 2023, with a revenue increase of 10.48% compared to Q4 2022 and a net profit growth of 14.89% [3][4] - The loan business is further penetrating the market, with loans under 1 million accounting for 41.64% of total loans, showing an improvement from 41.55% in Q2 2023, and the non-performing loan (NPL) ratio decreased from 0.85% to 0.78% [3][4] - The report maintains a positive outlook on the company, projecting EPS growth for 2024-2026 at 13.02%, 12.05%, and 13.73% respectively, with a reasonable value range of 10.09 to 10.95 yuan [4][5] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q4 2023, the company's revenue reached 9,870 million yuan, with a year-over-year growth of 12.05% expected for 2024 [5] - The net profit for 2023 is projected at 3,282 million yuan, with a growth rate of 19.60% [5] - The average return on equity (ROE) is expected to be 13.90% in 2023, increasing to 14.44% by 2026 [5][10] Loan Quality - The company's NPL ratio at the end of 2023 is 0.75%, stable compared to Q3 2023, with personal loan NPLs improving to 0.78% from 0.80% in Q2 2023 [4][10] - The provision coverage ratio increased to 537.88% in Q4 2023, up by 0.92 percentage points from Q3 2023 [4][10] Valuation Metrics - The report estimates a reasonable price-to-earnings (PE) ratio for 2024 between 7.47 and 8.11, compared to the industry average of 4.37 [4][5] - The projected price-to-book (PB) ratio for 2024 is 1.00, with a valuation based on comparable companies at 0.48 [4][5] Growth Projections - Revenue is expected to grow steadily, with forecasts of 10,927 million yuan in 2024, 12,428 million yuan in 2025, and 14,245 million yuan in 2026 [5][10] - Loan growth is projected at 15% for 2023, with a consistent growth rate expected in the following years [10]