Investment Rating - Buy (Maintained) [1] Core Views - The company's performance is under short-term pressure, but the high growth driven by innovative drugs is becoming more certain [1] - Revenue in 2023 reached 6,640 million yuan (YoY +4.3%), with drug sales and promotion services contributing 6,567 million yuan [2] - Innovative drug revenue was approximately 4,756 million yuan (YoY +15.2%), accounting for 72.0% of total revenue (65.3% in 2022) [2] - Net profit attributable to the parent company was 715 million yuan (YoY -23.4%), impacted by fair value losses in the investment portfolio and one-time income from the disposal of subsidiaries [2] - Operating net profit attributable to the parent company was 757 million yuan (YoY +12.3%), showing steady growth [2] - R&D and sales expenses accounted for 23.7% and 35.7% of revenue, respectively, with both declining for three consecutive years, indicating improved operational efficiency and economies of scale [2] Financial Forecasts and Valuation - Revenue is expected to grow to 7,550 million yuan in 2024E, 8,900 million yuan in 2025E, and 10,600 million yuan in 2026E [2] - Net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to be 945.85 million yuan in 2024E, 1,244.75 million yuan in 2025E, and 1,635.91 million yuan in 2026E [2] - EPS is projected to be 0.36 yuan in 2024E, 0.48 yuan in 2025E, and 0.63 yuan in 2026E [2] - P/E ratios are estimated at 15.01x for 2024E, 11.41x for 2025E, and 8.68x for 2026E [2] Business Segments Neuroscience - Neuroscience revenue in 2023 was 1,970 million yuan (YoY -13%), accounting for 30% of product revenue [3] - Xianbixin has digested the impact of price reductions, with hospital listings (+26.7%) and patient numbers (+21.6%) showing steady growth [3] - Xianbixin sublingual tablets received NDA approval in June 2023, and the Xianbixin series is expected to be applied in the full course of stroke treatment [3] - Daridorexant, an anti-insomnia innovative drug, is expected to submit NDA in Q3 2024 [3] - SIM0801 (QPCT) for Alzheimer's disease is in global Phase II trials, and SIM0800 (AQP4) for brain edema is in Phase 1a trials [3] Oncology - Oncology revenue in 2023 was 1,580 million yuan (YoY +10%), accounting for 24% of total revenue [3] - The "Endu + Envida" product combination continues to grow steadily, and the new product Kosela has shown initial success in market expansion [3] - Kosela, a first-in-class full-line bone marrow protection drug, is widely recommended in multiple guidelines and has broad prospects for ADC and IO combination therapies [3] - External collaborations are accelerating commercialization, with EGFR monoclonal antibody CMAB009 expected to launch in 2024 and VEGF antibody Suvaxeta expected to submit NDA in 2024 [3] - High-potential innovative products include SIM0270 (SERD), SIM0500 (GPRC5D-BCMA-CD3), SIM0501 (USP1), and SIM0237 (PDL1/IL15v) [3] - ADC pipeline includes SIM0508 (CDH6-ADC) and SIM0686 (FGFR2b-ADC) with differentiated layouts [3] Autoimmune and Anti-Infective - Autoimmune and anti-infective revenue in 2023 was 1,600 million yuan (YoY +44%), accounting for 24% of total revenue [3] - The company has a deep layout in rheumatoid arthritis (RA) treatment, with Aitoxin maintaining growth [3] - Key targets in the autoimmune field include IL4R (Lederchibai, IL4Rα), IL17 (SIM335, IL17A), URAT1 (SIM295, URAT1), and JAK1 (LNK01001, JAK1) [3] - The anti-infective segment is in the initial construction phase, with Xiannuoxin quickly entering the market and BIC new drug ADC189 expected to bring new growth [3] Financial Ratios - ROIC is expected to increase from 8.23% in 2023A to 14.04% in 2026E [9] - ROE is projected to rise from 9.90% in 2023A to 14.81% in 2026E [9] - Gross margin is forecasted to remain stable at around 75-77% from 2023A to 2026E [9] - Net profit margin is expected to increase from 10.82% in 2023A to 15.43% in 2026E [9] - Debt-to-asset ratio is projected to decrease from 33.45% in 2023A to 28.35% in 2026E [9] Market Data - Closing price: HKD 5.44 [5] - 52-week low/high: HKD 4.94/10.42 [5] - P/B ratio: 1.98x [5] - Market capitalization: HKD 14,197.10 million [5] Key Financial Data - Total assets: 10,853.67 million yuan in 2023A, expected to grow to 15,404.96 million yuan in 2026E [8] - Total liabilities: 3,630.93 million yuan in 2023A, expected to increase to 4,367.16 million yuan in 2026E [8] - Shareholders' equity: 7,222.74 million yuan in 2023A, expected to grow to 11,049.24 million yuan in 2026E [8]
2023年报点评：业绩短期承压，创新药驱动的高成长确定性增强