LI AUTO(HK:02015)2024-03-24 16:00Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of $40.8 for LI.US and HKD 159.5 for 2015.HK, indicating a potential upside of 29% and 32% respectively [9][11][30]. Core Views - The company has adjusted its Q1 2024 delivery guidance downwards from 100,000-103,000 units to 76,000-78,000 units, while maintaining a year-on-year sales growth target of 50%-70% for the full year [10]. - The report highlights that the company's sales share remains stable, and the performance of plug-in hybrid vehicles continues to outperform pure electric models, providing reasonable growth space [10]. - The company aims to stabilize its gross margin above 20% in 2024, with expectations for continued profit release as delivery volumes grow [10][12]. Financial Forecasts and Metrics - Revenue projections for 2024E are set at RMB 191,081 million, with a growth rate of 54% compared to the previous year [12]. - The net profit forecast for 2024E is RMB 15,174 million, reflecting a significant increase from a loss of RMB 2,012 million in 2022 [12]. - The gross margin is expected to be 21.0% in 2024E, with a gradual increase to 22.4% by 2026E [12][13]. - The report notes a downward adjustment in revenue and profit forecasts for 2024-2026, with new estimates showing an 8% decrease in revenue for 2024E compared to previous forecasts [13]. Delivery and Sales Performance - The company anticipates achieving a total delivery volume of 608,000 units in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 62% [10]. - The average selling price of vehicles is projected to decline slightly, with expectations of RMB 306,356 in Q1 2024 [14]. - The report indicates that the company's single-vehicle profitability has been improving, with a projected profit of RMB 23,324 per vehicle in Q1 2024 [14]. Valuation - The report employs a sum-of-the-parts valuation method, assigning a price-to-earnings ratio of 19.5x for automotive sales and 15.0x for other revenues, leading to the target price of $40.8 for LI.US [11][15]. - The current market valuation is noted to be below the average, suggesting limited downside risk [10].