ANGEL YEAST(SH:600298) KAIYUAN SECURITIES·2024-03-24 16:00Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [2][3] Core Views - The company is expected to see a 10% decrease in costs for the new sugar season, with demand still needing to recover. The net profit forecasts for 2024-2025 have been adjusted to 1.467 billion and 1.867 billion yuan, respectively, with a new forecast for 2026 at 2.340 billion yuan. The corresponding EPS for 2024-2026 is projected at 1.69, 2.15, and 2.69 yuan, respectively, indicating a low valuation point and cost inflection [3][4]. Financial Performance Summary - In 2023, the company's main yeast business revenue was 9.505 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.38%. Sugar business revenue was 1.71 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 3.15%. Packaging revenue was 421 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 11.88%. Domestic market revenue was 8.761 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 1.2%, while international market revenue was 4.786 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 21.99% [4]. - In Q4 2023, the main yeast business, sugar, and packaging revenues decreased by 1.8%, 20.6%, and 15.0% year-on-year, respectively. Domestic market revenue decreased by 9.2%, while international market revenue increased by 27.4% [4]. - The net profit margin in Q4 2023 decreased by 1.86 percentage points, with the gross profit margin down by 0.91 percentage points due to promotions and depreciation [5]. Cost and Profitability Outlook - The company has achieved full production of hydrolyzed sugar, leading to a cost advantage of approximately 100 yuan compared to sugar molasses. The average raw material cost is expected to continue decreasing, with a 15.37% revenue growth target and a 7.80% net profit growth target for 2024 [6][7]. - The company's financial targets for 2024 include an operating income of 15.012 billion yuan and a net profit of 1.467 billion yuan, with a projected gross profit margin of 26.3% and a net profit margin of 9.8% [7][10]. Valuation Metrics - The current stock price is 29.07 yuan, with a market capitalization of 25.255 billion yuan. The P/E ratios for 2024-2026 are projected at 17.2, 13.5, and 10.8 times, respectively [8][10]. - The company's return on equity (ROE) is expected to improve from 12.4% in 2023 to 16.3% by 2026 [10][11].