Gemdale(600383) Changjiang Securities·2024-03-24 16:00Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" and is maintained [5]. Core Views - The company is experiencing a decline in both revenue and profitability due to market demand downturn and industry-wide credit contraction, leading to a cautious operational approach. The pressure from debt is increasing, and the company is focusing on sales collection and leveraging quality assets for cash flow [9]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2023, the company achieved revenue of 98.13 billion (-18.4%) and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 0.89 billion (-85.5%). The net profit after deducting non-recurring items was a loss of 1.1 billion, compared to a profit of 5.7 billion in the same period last year. The dividend payout ratio was 10.0% [6][7]. Revenue and Profitability - Revenue and gross margin both declined, with the gross margin dropping by 3.3 percentage points to 17.4%. The decline in revenue was attributed to a 21.1% decrease in settlement resources and a slight price drop of 0.7%. The investment income also fell by 50.8% to 1.96 billion [7][9]. Market Position and Sales - The company maintained a strong market position with a sales volume of 153.55 billion (-30.8%) and an average sales price of 17,500 per square meter (-19.5%). The company is focusing on prudent land acquisition, with total land acquisition amounting to 12.5 billion (-66.0%) and land area down by 61.7% [7][9]. Debt Management - As of the end of 2023, the company had total interest-bearing debt of 91.91 billion (-20.2%), with a debt-to-asset ratio of 68.7% and a net debt ratio of 53.2%. The average cost of debt financing was 4.36% [8][9]. Future Outlook - The company is expected to see a marginal improvement in operations if market demand stabilizes, with projected net profits for 2024-2026 at 0.96 billion, 1.02 billion, and 1.05 billion respectively, reflecting growth rates of 8.4%, 5.7%, and 3.2% [9].