业绩承压，经营性业务稳健

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Longfor Group (00960.HK) [1][2][6] Core Views - The company experienced a decline in both revenue and profit, with operating business showing stable development. In 2023, the company achieved revenue of 180.7 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 27.9%, and a net profit of 12.9 billion yuan, down 47.3% [3][6] - The core net profit, excluding minority interests and fair value changes of investment properties and financial derivatives, was 11.4 billion yuan, a decline of 49.6% year-on-year. The property development business generated revenue of 155.9 billion yuan, down 31%, while operational revenue increased by 9% to 12.9 billion yuan [3][6] - The company focuses on core cities to ensure cash flow, achieving a sales area of 10.8 million square meters, down 17.2%, and sales amounting to 173.5 billion yuan, down 13.9%. The company maintained a 100% collection rate [3][6] Financial Performance and Forecast - Revenue and profit forecasts for 2024 and 2025 have been adjusted downwards due to market downturns affecting the company's turnover scale and gross margin. Expected net profits for 2024 and 2025 are 12.92 billion yuan and 12.95 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding EPS of 1.91 yuan [1][6][10] - The company’s financial safety is highlighted by a debt-to-asset ratio of 60% and a net debt ratio of 56% as of the end of 2023. The company has a cash balance of 60.4 billion yuan, down 16.8% year-on-year, and a cash-to-short-term debt ratio of 1.36 times [6][9] Business Segmentation - The company’s land reserves total 45.39 million square meters, with an average land cost of 4,705 yuan per square meter. High-quality land reserves account for 72% of total area, representing 77% of sales value [3][6] - The company has secured financing channels, with new operating property loans of 17.4 billion yuan and remaining bank credit limits exceeding 200 billion yuan [6][9]