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小微保持韧性,业绩确定性强

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Changshu Bank, indicating an expected stock price increase of over 15% relative to the industry index within the next six months [11]. Core Insights - Changshu Bank demonstrated resilience in its performance, with 2023 revenue reaching 9.87 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 12.1%, and net profit of 3.28 billion yuan, up 19.6% year-on-year [2][3]. - The bank's non-performing loan (NPL) ratio remained stable at 0.75%, with a provision coverage ratio of 538%, reflecting strong asset quality management [2][5]. - The bank's strategy focuses on increasing its share of micro and small enterprise loans, with personal operating loans making up 40.4% of total loans, a 2 percentage point increase from the beginning of the year [3][5]. Financial Performance Summary - Revenue and Profit Growth: In 2023, the bank's revenue and net profit grew by 12.1% and 19.6% respectively, with projections for 2024 indicating revenue growth of around 10% and net profit growth of approximately 18% [2][3]. - Return on Equity (ROE): The bank's ROE is expected to improve to 14% in 2024, indicating a positive trend in profitability [3][5]. - Cost-to-Income Ratio: The cost-to-income ratio has decreased from 41.4% in 2021 to 36.9% in 2023, driven by an increase in personal operating loan balances [3][5]. Asset Quality and Risk Management - Non-Performing Loans: The NPL ratio has remained stable at 0.75%, with a slight increase in the attention and overdue rates, potentially influenced by policy changes and asset classification regulations [5][6]. - Provision Coverage: The provision coverage ratio stands at 538%, indicating a robust buffer against potential loan losses [5][6]. Future Outlook - The bank is expected to maintain strong growth in net profit, with projections of 17.7%, 16.5%, and 16.0% for the years 2024 to 2026 [5][7]. - The ongoing focus on micro and small enterprises, along with geographical expansion, is anticipated to support the bank's growth trajectory [5][6].