MEITUAN(03690) 光大证券·2024-03-25 16:00Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, citing improved competitive dynamics in core businesses and a narrowing loss in new businesses [15][19] Core Views - The company's 4Q2023 revenue increased by 22.56% YoY, with adjusted net profit surging by 427.62% YoY [19] - The company's 2023 revenue reached RMB 276.745 billion, a 25.82% YoY increase, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of RMB 13.856 billion, turning from a loss in the previous year [19] - The company's 4Q2023 gross margin rose by 5.75 percentage points, while the expense ratio increased by 2.84 percentage points [15][20] - The company's real-time delivery transactions in 4Q2023 grew by 25.2% YoY, with peak daily food delivery orders reaching 78 million [21] Business Performance Core Local Commerce - Core local commerce revenue in 4Q2023 was RMB 55.13 billion, with a YoY growth of 26.82% [1] - Core local commerce revenue for the full year 2023 was RMB 206.91 billion, a 28.71% YoY increase [2] - Delivery services accounted for 39.77% of core local commerce revenue in 4Q2023, with a YoY growth of 10.90% [2] - Commission income grew by 32.73% YoY in 4Q2023, contributing 35.24% to core local commerce revenue [2] New Business - New business revenue in 4Q2023 was RMB 18.57 billion, with a YoY growth of 11.46% [1] - New business revenue for the full year 2023 was RMB 69.84 billion, a 17.98% YoY increase [2] - The new business segment reported an operating loss of RMB 20.17 billion in 2023, with a negative operating margin of 28.88% [2] Financial Metrics - The company's 2023 gross margin was 35.12%, up 7.04 percentage points YoY [20] - The company's 2023 expense ratio was 32.74%, with sales and marketing expenses accounting for 21.18% of revenue [20] - The company's adjusted EPS for 2023 was RMB 3.73, with a projected increase to RMB 9.32 by 2026 [23] - The company's 2023 ROE (diluted) was 9.12%, with a projected increase to 18.57% by 2026 [7] Future Projections - The company's revenue is expected to grow to RMB 424.038 billion by 2026, with a CAGR of 13.72% [23] - The company's adjusted net profit is projected to reach RMB 58.121 billion by 2026 [23] - The company's gross margin is expected to improve to 40.52% by 2026 [7] Industry and Competitive Landscape - The company's core local commerce business has shown stable competitive dynamics, with significant growth in delivery and commission income [2][19] - The new business segment is expected to focus on reducing losses, with a projected narrowing of losses in 2024 and beyond [15][19]