Milkground(SH:600882) Huaxin Securities·2024-03-25 16:00Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for its stock performance [10][11]. Core Views - The company experienced a decline in total revenue in 2023, amounting to 4.049 billion yuan, a decrease of 16% year-on-year, primarily due to market changes affecting its cheese business [10][11]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders for 2023 was 63 million yuan, down 53.1% year-on-year, with a significant drop in non-recurring net profit [10][11]. - The report highlights an expected improvement in profit margins and stabilization of the cheese business, with forecasts for EPS of 0.24, 0.36, and 0.50 yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively [10][11]. Financial Forecasts - Revenue Forecast: - 2023A: 4,049 million yuan - 2024E: 4,804 million yuan (growth rate: 18.7%) - 2025E: 5,611 million yuan (growth rate: 16.8%) - 2026E: 6,408 million yuan (growth rate: 14.2%) [4][6] - Net Profit Forecast: - 2023A: 63 million yuan - 2024E: 125 million yuan (growth rate: 97.6%) - 2025E: 186 million yuan (growth rate: 48.6%) - 2026E: 259 million yuan (growth rate: 39.2%) [4][6] - EPS Forecast: - 2023A: 0.12 yuan - 2024E: 0.24 yuan - 2025E: 0.36 yuan - 2026E: 0.50 yuan [4][11] - ROE Forecast: - 2023A: 1.5% - 2024E: 2.8% - 2025E: 4.0% - 2026E: 5.3% [4][6] Business Performance Insights - The cheese segment is expected to stabilize, with contributions from the bulk snack channel anticipated to increase [10][11]. - The company has implemented effective cost control measures, leading to improved profit margins in the fourth quarter of 2023, with a net profit margin increase [10][11]. - The report notes a decrease in sales and management expense ratios, indicating better expense management [10][11].