XfmGroup(603225) 开源证券·2024-03-25 16:00Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [2][5][12] Core Views - The company achieved significant improvement in its 2023 performance, with revenue reaching 61.469 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 21.03%, and a net profit of 1.086 billion yuan, marking a turnaround from losses [5][6] - The long filament segment is expected to continue its profit recovery, supported by improved sales volumes and margins [5][7] - The report maintains a positive outlook on the company's earnings elasticity in the long filament sector [5] Financial Performance Summary - In 2023, the company reported a quarterly net profit of 1.99 billion yuan in Q4, despite a 51.04% decline from the previous quarter due to seasonal demand factors [5][6] - The sales volume for long and short fibers in 2023 was approximately 6.82 million tons and 1.17 million tons, respectively, with year-on-year growth of 20% and 149% [6] - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 0.255 yuan per share, totaling 384 million yuan, with a cash dividend ratio of 35.35% [5] Earnings Forecast - The company forecasts net profits of 2.053 billion yuan, 2.536 billion yuan, and 2.718 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with corresponding EPS of 1.34 yuan, 1.66 yuan, and 1.78 yuan [5][8] - The current stock price corresponds to a P/E ratio of 10.3, 8.3, and 7.8 for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026 [5][8] Industry Outlook - The long filament industry is expected to see a significant slowdown in capacity growth in 2024, with an estimated net new capacity of only 900,000 tons, which may lead to improved supply dynamics [7] - The report anticipates that leading companies will benefit from price elasticity in the long filament market due to steady domestic demand and marginal improvements in export conditions [7]