Lier Chemical (SZ:002258) Guohai Securities·2024-03-25 16:00Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company's performance has been impacted by the decline in glyphosate prices, with the average price in Q4 2023 being 65,000 yuan/ton, down 66% year-on-year, leading to a decrease in gross profit and gross margin [4][20] - The company is progressing with several new projects, including a 20,000 tons/year enzyme-based glyphosate project that has been completed and put into production, and a 10,000 tons/year glyphosate project that has started construction [8][20] Financial Performance Summary - In Q4 2023, the company achieved operating revenue of 1.84 billion yuan, a decrease of 23% year-on-year, but an increase of 20% quarter-on-quarter [3][30] - The net profit attributable to the parent company for Q4 2023 was 44 million yuan, down 86.3% year-on-year and down 45.3% quarter-on-quarter [3][30] - The company's gross profit margin for Q4 2023 was 18.3%, a decrease of 11.9 percentage points year-on-year [3][30] Revenue and Profit Forecast - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 608 million yuan, 689 million yuan, and 847 million yuan for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 12, 11, and 9 [20][21] - The revenue forecast for the company is 78.67 billion yuan in 2024, with a growth rate of 0%, followed by 8.57 billion yuan in 2025 and 9.83 billion yuan in 2026, with growth rates of 9% and 15% respectively [21]