ACCELINK(002281) 海通证券·2024-03-25 16:00Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company has a leading position in the global optical device industry, ranking fourth globally and maintaining top positions in key segments such as telecom transmission, data communication, and access networks [2][5] - The company has achieved stable growth in revenue and profitability, with revenue increasing from 4.929 billion CNY in 2018 to 6.912 billion CNY in 2022, and net profit growing from 333 million CNY to 608 million CNY during the same period [2] - The company has a strong vertical integration capability, covering the entire value chain from chips, devices, modules to subsystems, and has achieved significant progress in the localization of optical devices [2][3] Industry Overview - The global optical module market is expected to grow from 22.2 billion by 2028, with a CAGR of 12%, driven by the demand for high-speed modules above 400G from cloud service providers and telecom operators [5] - The Ethernet optical module market is projected to grow from 12.3 billion by 2028, with a CAGR of 15% [5] - The Chinese optical module market is expected to reach $3.5 billion by 2028, driven by the "East Data West Computing" strategy and the rapid development of data centers [30] Company Strengths - The company has a strong R&D capability, with R&D expenses growing at a CAGR of 9.72% from 2016 to 2022, and has achieved breakthroughs in key technologies such as optical amplifiers and wavelength selective switches [2][15] - The company has a comprehensive product portfolio, covering optical chips, devices, modules, and subsystems, and has achieved significant progress in high-speed optical modules, with 400G modules already in mass production and 800G modules in the sampling stage [3][68] - The company has a leading position in the global optical module market, consistently ranking among the top 10 global optical module manufacturers from 2016 to 2022 [5][77] Growth Drivers - The company is well-positioned to benefit from the growth in AI-driven demand for high-speed optical modules, with 800G modules expected to see strong demand due to the deployment of AI training infrastructure [66][68] - The company is expanding its product offerings in emerging areas such as satellite communication and LiDAR, with significant potential for growth in these markets [71][72] - The company is also making progress in fiber sensing technology, with its latest solutions achieving a sensing distance of over 200km and integrating multiple sensing capabilities [73][75] Financial Performance - The company has shown stable growth in revenue and profitability, with revenue increasing from 4.929 billion CNY in 2018 to 6.912 billion CNY in 2022, and net profit growing from 333 million CNY to 608 million CNY during the same period [2] - The company's gross margin has remained stable, ranging from 19.82% to 24.20% from 2018 to 2022, while its net margin has improved from 6.28% in 2018 to 8.88% in 2022 [2][13] - The company has maintained stable expense ratios, with R&D expenses accounting for 9.55% of revenue in 2022, reflecting its strong commitment to innovation [15] Valuation and Forecast - The report forecasts the company's net profit to grow from 591 million CNY in 2023 to 1.062 billion CNY in 2025, with EPS increasing from 0.74 CNY to 1.34 CNY during the same period [3] - The report assigns a PE range of 40-45X for 2024, corresponding to a fair value range of 40.40-45.45 CNY, based on historical valuation and peer comparisons [3]