Keda Group(SH:600499) Tianfeng Securities·2024-03-26 16:00Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [4][6]. Core Views - The company experienced a significant decline in revenue and net profit in 2023, with revenue at 9.70 billion yuan, down 13.10% year-on-year, and net profit at 2.09 billion yuan, down 50.79% year-on-year, primarily due to fluctuations in lithium carbonate prices [1][4]. - The overseas business has shown resilience, contributing approximately 60% to total revenue, indicating that international expansion may become a core focus for future growth [1][2]. - The report highlights the potential for high-margin, high-growth overseas building materials sales to drive future performance, alongside improvements in profitability from traditional building machinery exports [1][4]. Financial Performance Summary - In 2023, the company’s revenue from building machinery, overseas building materials sales, and lithium battery materials were 4.48 billion yuan, 3.66 billion yuan, and 740 million yuan, respectively, reflecting year-on-year changes of -20.2%, +11.6%, and -38.9% [2]. - The gross margin for the company was 29.2%, a slight decrease of 0.2% year-on-year, with specific margins for building machinery, overseas sales, and lithium materials at 28.4%, 35.7%, and 9.2% respectively [3]. - The company’s cash flow from operations (CFO) was 731 million yuan in 2023, a decrease of 267 million yuan year-on-year, while the debt-to-asset ratio increased to 42.01% [3][10]. Future Projections - The report projects a decrease in net profit for 2024 and 2025 to 1.96 billion yuan and 2.08 billion yuan, respectively, with a new forecast for 2026 at 2.43 billion yuan, indicating a year-on-year growth of 16.6% [4][11]. - The company aims to achieve 10 billion yuan in revenue from its overseas building materials business within five years, with expected annual production capacities exceeding 200 million square meters of building ceramics and 2.6 million pieces of sanitary ware [2][4].