Three Squirrels(SZ:300783) Tianfeng Securities·2024-03-26 16:00Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, expecting a significant revenue growth in the coming years [3][23]. Core Insights - The company achieved a total revenue of 7.1158 billion yuan in 2023, a year-over-year decrease of 2.45%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 69.85% to 220 million yuan [1][3]. - The company is focusing on high-end cost-performance strategies and aims to strengthen its product categories through a "one product, one chain" approach, which is expected to drive revenue back to the 10 billion yuan mark [3][14]. - The company has successfully built a comprehensive e-commerce ecosystem, particularly in the short video domain, which has contributed to a 118.51% increase in revenue from Douyin [15]. Financial Performance Summary - In 2023, the company reported a net profit of 220 million yuan, with a significant increase in net profit margin to 3.09% from 1.77% in 2022 [5][10]. - The company’s revenue from the nut category was 3.812 billion yuan, a decrease of 7.18% year-over-year, while the overall revenue from the snack category showed resilience with a 24.92% increase [14][15]. - The projected net profits for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are estimated at 370 million yuan, 470 million yuan, and 560 million yuan respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings ratios of 24X, 19X, and 16X [3][16]. Channel Strategy - The company is actively embracing emerging channels while flexibly adjusting traditional channels to build a "full-channel" strategy [2][15]. - Online sales reached 4.951 billion yuan in 2023, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 3.4%, while offline sales decreased by 13.63% to 2.163 billion yuan [15][19]. Product Development - The company continues to focus on its core nut products while developing a complete product matrix, with significant investments in product upgrades and new category explorations [14][15]. - The company has successfully created a series of major products through comprehensive optimization across its supply chain [14].