Milkground(SH:600882) Minsheng Securities·2024-03-26 16:00Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company, with a current price of 13.74 yuan [9]. Core Views - The company reported a 2023 annual revenue of 4.049 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 16.2%. The net profit attributable to the parent company was 63.44 million yuan, down 53.9% year-on-year, while the non-recurring net profit was 7.17 million yuan, an increase of 89.6% year-on-year, exceeding previous performance forecasts [8]. - In Q4 2023, the company achieved a revenue of 970 million yuan, a year-on-year decline of 2.7%, with net profits turning positive at 29.56 million yuan and non-recurring net profits at 9.08 million yuan [8]. - The company faced a decline in C-end sales and a slowdown in B-end sales, but launched a new cheese snack series in Q4 to refresh its product line [8]. - The cheese segment saw a revenue of 3.137 billion yuan, down 18.9% year-on-year, while the trading and liquid milk segments reported revenues of 567 million yuan and 333 million yuan, down 5.4% and 4.3% respectively [8]. - The company is actively expanding its new retail channels and has reduced the number of distributors to 5,036 by the end of 2023, covering approximately 800,000 retail terminals [8]. - The gross margin for 2023 was 29.24%, a decrease of 4.92 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to rising costs of key raw materials [8]. - The report forecasts net profits for 2024, 2025, and 2026 to be 126 million yuan, 175 million yuan, and 231 million yuan respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 98.4%, 39.3%, and 31.7% [8]. Financial Summary - The total revenue for 2023 was 4.049 billion yuan, with projected revenues of 4.722 billion yuan, 5.639 billion yuan, and 6.791 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively [10]. - The net profit for 2023 was 63 million yuan, with projections of 126 million yuan, 175 million yuan, and 231 million yuan for the following years [10]. - The report indicates a decrease in the company's profit margins, with a net profit margin of 1.57% for 2023, down 1.24 percentage points year-on-year [8].