Investment Rating - Buy rating maintained for Hegang Resources (000923 SZ) [12] Core Views - Hegang Resources is a copper and iron ore resource play with significant profit elasticity [5] - Copper business: Phase II project expected to contribute substantial earnings with 70k tons annual copper output [5] - Iron ore business: Cost advantage with full production cost around 65/ton,significantlylowerthandomesticpeers[5]−Coppermarket:Tightsupply−demandbalanceexpectedtocontinueduetonewenergydemandgrowthandsupplyconstraints[6]−Ironoremarket:Strongdomesticdemandandoligopolisticsupplystructuresupportpricestability[6]BusinessSegmentsCopperBusiness−PhaseIIprojecthas9653ktonsofcopperreserveswith70ktonsannualdesigncapacity[5]−Expectedfullproductioncostof368kRMB/ton,contributing704mRMBnetprofitat60kRMB/toncopperprice[5]−Projecttimeline:PhaseIIexpectedtostartproductionbyend−2024,reachfullcapacityby2026[5]−CurrentcopperproductionfromPhaseIprojectfacingdecliningreservesandincreasingcosts[26]IronOreBusiness−Ironoreresourcesderivedfromcopperminingby−products,with14billiontonsstockpileat5865/ton, significantly lower than domestic peers [5] - Sales mainly to China, with stable demand from domestic steel industry [76] Vermiculite Business - PC vermiculite mine is one of world's top three producers, accounting for 1/3 of global output [25] - Long-term supply relationships established with customers in North America, Europe and Asia [25] Market Outlook Copper Market - Global copper demand expected to grow 3% annually, driven by new energy sectors (13% of total demand in 2023) [6] - Supply constrained by declining ore grades and limited capital expenditure from major producers [117] - Tight supply-demand balance expected to continue through 2025 [146] - Federal Reserve rate cuts likely to catalyze copper price increases [149] Iron Ore Market - Oligopolistic supply structure with top four producers controlling 75% of global shipments [6] - Strong domestic demand supported by China's infrastructure and real estate sectors [6] - Global supply and demand both expected to grow, with tightness depending on project execution [6] - Recent price correction due to weak construction demand, but recovery expected with warmer weather and policy support [158] Financial Projections - Net profit forecast: 960m RMB (2023), 1 076b RMB (2024), 1 105b RMB (2025) [7] - PE ratios: 10 9x (2023), 9 7x (2024), 9 5x (2025) [7] - Copper Phase II expected to contribute 704m RMB net profit annually at full capacity [5] - Iron ore business projected to generate 1 238b RMB net profit at 8 million tons shipment and $120/ton price [108]
HBIS Resources (000923) 长江证券·2024-03-26 16:00