Investment Rating - Buy rating with a current price of HKD 5.41 and a target price of HKD 11.79 [1] Core Views - The company reported 2023 revenue of RMB 6.608 billion, a 4.5% YoY increase, driven by rapid growth in innovative drug revenue, which reached RMB 4.756 billion (+15.2% YoY), accounting for 72% of total revenue [3] - R&D, sales, and management expenses were RMB 1.563 billion (-9.6% YoY), RMB 2.356 billion (-1.9% YoY), and RMB 499 million (+12.4% YoY), respectively, with expense ratios of 23.7%, 35.7%, and 7.6%, showing a stable or declining trend [3] - Net profit attributable to shareholders was RMB 715 million (-23.2% YoY), mainly affected by changes in the fair value of financial assets [3] - Revenue from the nervous system field was RMB 1.969 billion (-13.1% YoY), accounting for 29.8% of total revenue, primarily due to price reductions for Xianbixin injections [3] - Revenue from the oncology field was RMB 1.576 billion (+10.2% YoY), accounting for 23.9% of total revenue, while revenue from the autoimmune field was RMB 1.415 billion (+10.5% YoY), accounting for 21.4% of total revenue, driven by the growth of Aidexin [3] Revenue Breakdown by Segment - Oncology: Revenue of RMB 1.576 billion in 2023, expected to grow at a CAGR of 30% over the next three years, driven by the expansion of Endostar indications, localization of Cosela, and market share growth of Envida [6] - Central Nervous System: Revenue of RMB 1.969 billion in 2023, expected to recover growth as the impact of Xianbixin price reductions diminishes, with new products like Xianbixin sublingual tablets and Dalireson expected to contribute to growth [6] - Autoimmune: Revenue of RMB 1.415 billion in 2023, driven by Aidexin sales, which is recommended in clinical guidelines for rheumatoid arthritis and primary Sjögren's syndrome [6] - Other Products: Revenue of RMB 1.648 billion in 2023, expected to grow at a CAGR of 8% over the next three years [6] Financial Projections - Revenue is expected to grow to RMB 7.621 billion, RMB 8.860 billion, and RMB 10.069 billion in 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with YoY growth rates of 15.3%, 16.3%, and 13.7% [4] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be RMB 1.108 billion, RMB 1.346 billion, and RMB 1.587 billion in 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with YoY growth rates of 55.0%, 21.6%, and 17.8% [4] - EPS is expected to be RMB 0.42, RMB 0.52, and RMB 0.61 in 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively [4] Valuation - The company is valued at 25x PE for 2024, with a target price of HKD 11.79 per share [4] - The company's gross margin is expected to increase to nearly 80% due to the localization of Cosela and the higher proportion of high-margin innovative drug revenue [8]
创新药收入占比提高，期待更多新药落地