Sinotruk Jinan Truck (SZ:000951) Haitong Securities·2024-03-26 16:00Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" and is maintained [1]. Core Views - The company reported a significant revenue increase of 46% year-on-year, reaching 42.07 billion yuan in 2023, with Q4 revenue growing by 77.6% year-on-year [2][3]. - The company's net profit attributable to the parent company surged by 464.2% year-on-year to 1.04 billion yuan in 2023, with Q4 net profit increasing by 370.9% year-on-year [2][3]. - The company achieved a sales volume growth of 33% to 96,000 units in 2023, driven by a recovery in logistics heavy truck demand and strong export performance [3]. Financial Performance Summary - The company’s revenue and profit forecasts for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are as follows: - Revenue: 48.8 billion yuan (2024E), 55.9 billion yuan (2025E), 61.0 billion yuan (2026E) [6][8]. - Net profit: 1.44 billion yuan (2024E), 1.89 billion yuan (2025E), 2.22 billion yuan (2026E) [6][8]. - The gross margin is expected to improve from 7.8% in 2023 to 10.1% by 2026 [8][16]. - The company’s return on equity (ROE) is projected to increase from 7.3% in 2023 to 10.9% in 2026 [8][16]. Market Position and Competitive Advantage - The company is positioned as a leader in the heavy truck industry, benefiting from strong demand for natural gas heavy trucks and collaboration with Shandong Heavy Industry Group [4][15]. - The company has maintained a leading market share in various segments, including traction vehicles and specialized vehicles [15]. Valuation Metrics - As of March 26, 2024, the company's price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is approximately 13 for 2024, with a projected range of 16-18 times for reasonable valuation [15][16]. - The price-to-book (P/B) ratio is expected to be around 1.2 for 2024 [15][16].