GoodWe Technologies (SH:688390) Haitong Securities·2024-03-26 16:00Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [2][5] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 7.35 billion yuan in 2023, a year-on-year increase of 56.1%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 870 million yuan, up 33.7% year-on-year. However, Q4 2023 saw a revenue decline of 5% year-on-year due to high inventory levels of inverters in Europe and increased year-end expenses. A recovery in performance is expected in 2024 as industry inventory is gradually digested [5][6] - The company is a leading player in string inverters, with a strong focus on overseas channels, holding a global market share of 5% in 2022. The overseas revenue accounted for 80% of total revenue, with a gross margin of 37.12%, significantly higher than domestic operations [5][6] - The company has established a robust marketing system for its energy storage business, which accounted for 48.2% of total revenue in 2022, showing a year-on-year increase of 30.3 percentage points. This business is expected to grow rapidly due to the company's established brand and distribution channels [5][6] - The company operates with a light asset model, with current assets making up 72.4% of total assets. Cost control has improved, with sales, management, and financial expense ratios decreasing year-on-year [5][6] - Profit forecasts indicate net profits of 869 million yuan, 900 million yuan, and 1.087 billion yuan for 2023, 2024, and 2025, respectively, with corresponding year-on-year growth rates of 33.8%, 3.6%, and 20.8%. The company is valued at a PE ratio of 29-31 for 2023, suggesting a reasonable price range of 145.58 to 155.62 yuan [5][6][10] Financial Performance Summary - In 2023, the company is expected to achieve a total revenue of 7.352 billion yuan, with a projected revenue growth of 24.4% in 2024 and 22.8% in 2025. The gross margin is expected to gradually decline to 30% by 2025 [6][10] - The inverter business is projected to generate revenues of 4.93 billion yuan, 5.64 billion yuan, and 6.83 billion yuan for 2023, 2024, and 2025, respectively, with a gross margin stabilizing around 37.7% by 2025 [7][8] - The energy storage battery segment is expected to see significant growth, with revenues projected at 720 million yuan in 2023 and increasing to 1.85 billion yuan by 2025 [7][8] - The household system segment is also anticipated to grow, with revenues expected to reach 1.22 billion yuan in 2023 and 2.05 billion yuan in 2025 [7][8] Valuation Metrics - The company is currently valued at a P/E ratio of 28.11 for 2022, with projections of 21.01 for 2023 and further declines to 16.79 by 2025, indicating a favorable valuation trend [10][11]