2023年扭亏为盈，看好长丝持续回升

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy-B" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for investment [1][3]. Core Views - The company turned a profit in 2023, achieving a revenue of 61.469 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 21.03%, and a net profit of 1.086 billion yuan, marking a significant turnaround with a growth of 629.7% [1][4]. - The improvement in performance is attributed to the release of production capacity and better price differentials, leading to a notable increase in sales volume [1][3]. - The polyester filament sales volume reached 6.816 million tons in 2023, up 19.8% year-on-year, with significant growth in POY, FDY, and DTY sales [1][4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2023, the company reported a gross margin of 5.84%, an increase of 2.13 percentage points year-on-year [1][4]. - The fourth quarter of 2023 saw a revenue of 17.269 billion yuan, a 34.5% increase year-on-year, with a net profit of 199 million yuan, reflecting a 140.8% growth [1][4]. - The company expects revenues of 68.039 billion yuan, 73.456 billion yuan, and 77.338 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with corresponding net profits of 2.013 billion yuan, 2.503 billion yuan, and 2.952 billion yuan [3][4]. Production Capacity and Market Position - The company has a polyester filament capacity of 7.4 million tons and plans to increase this by 400,000 tons in 2024 and 650,000 tons in 2025 [5][6]. - The company is positioned as a leading player in the domestic polyester filament industry, with a market share exceeding 12% [1][3]. - The PTA production capacity is currently at 5 million tons, with plans to expand to 10 million tons by mid-2026 [5][6]. Industry Outlook - The report highlights that the polyester filament industry is expected to see a slowdown in new supply starting in the second half of 2023, which will benefit leading companies like the one under review [3][5]. - The industry is experiencing improved supply-demand dynamics, which is anticipated to lead to sustained profitability recovery [1][3]. Valuation - The company’s P/E ratios for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are projected to be 10.3x, 8.3x, and 7.0x respectively, indicating attractive valuation compared to peers [3][7]. - The average P/E ratios for comparable companies in the polyester filament sector are significantly higher, suggesting that the company is undervalued relative to its peers [7].